This is the second part of a home-and-home set between the hosting Washington Wizards and the visiting Miami Heat. Two nights ago, the Wizards were more successful, winning 102-93, so the Heat would very much want to return them the favor by stealing one in front of the fans.
Heat at Wizards
Spread: Washington -4.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 208.5 points (-110)
Strangers at home, the Heat lose a tight contest to the Wizards.
The Miami Heat played their first game at American Airlines Arena in two weeks when they faced off against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday, but the home showing didn’t go as planned. They couldn’t come up with the full 48 minutes of Heat basketball and only made a couple of good runs, eventually falling 93-102.
The Heat continued to have brilliant stretches as well as some waves of poor play that ultimately cost them a victory. The Wizards took a lead as large as 13 and were shooting as high as 61.5 percent in the late parts of the first half. The Heat opened the second half on a 17-3 run during one of its best quarters of the season in which it outscored the Wizards 25-10 and limited the Wizards to 4 of 19 shooting. The Heat’s lead ballooned to as many as eight points in the fourth quarter before the Wizards finally regained their shooting touch and evened the score. Goran Dragic led the way for the Heat with 21 points, but had only two assists and couldn’t handle the usual Heat killer Wall. Whiteside had a strong 14-point, 21-rebound double-double. Of course, the rebounds were a-plenty, as both sides shot only 41 percent from the field. Waiters (19 points) and Richardson (who scored 13 of his 15 points in the second period) also scored in double digits, but neither was efficient doing it, and Waiters sloppy fourth-quarter play had cost his team a few possessions and a rhythm coming into the clutch part of the game. Turnovers made all the difference in the final quarter, and the Heat need to figure out how to move the ball more swiftly and more accurately.
The Heat had all the players available but Okaro White, who is buried deep in the rotation and possibly wouldn’t have played even if not for an injury. The Heat return to Florida to face Indy and Boston, before embarking on another 4-game road trip.
Place: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Date/Time: Friday, November 17th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBCSWA, SUN
The Spurs split a back-to-back on the road, return to safety of their home
After some straight up awful performances defensively this season, the Wizards have managed to put together four straight solid defensive games and may have played their best one yet against Miami for their fourth straight victory and ninth win of the season.
Wednesday’s contest was a game of runs. Just when it seemed like the Heat were going to be able to close the deficit, or even increase their advantage, the Wizards were able to turn it on, allowing them to control the game from start to finish. The Wizards started the game off hot offensively led by John Wall, who finished with 27 points and Bradley Beal, who finished with 26. Porter didn’t need to shoot the ball or handle it to be effective – he scored 12 points on eight shot attempts and contributed with 13 rebounds. Markieff Morris fouled out and was also ejected. He has been pretty uneven since return and that continued against the Heat. Every time the Wizards seemed to be on the verge of putting the game out of reach, the Heat found a way to claw back. As they kind of always do, the Wizards went cold and started showing their bad face as soon as they’d open a double-digit lead. The Heat were able to take the lead and hold onto it into the final frame, but once again the Wizards’ offensive ability proved too much to keep up with.
The Wizards play the next two on the road in a challenging back-to-back set on Sunday and Monday, so it’s good that they are entering this part of the schedule in full health.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards Game Trends & Prediction
The Miami Heat have been much more successful on the road, so perhaps they’ll respond to the change of venue. While they are only 4-8-2 against the spread overall, the 4-3 away record doesn’t look as bad. The last game stayed below the 211.5 total line by a large margin, bringing Miami O/U record to 6-8, but there are no real streaks here.
The Wizards also tend to benefit from the added spread points on the other teams’ floors. In Capital One Arena, they’ve covered in only three of eight played games, but are positive 8-6 overall. The Wizards have been trendy on the under side – they’ve held four last opponents in double digits and have stayed below expected lines six consecutive times. Granted, most of the opposition wasn’t offensively formidable at all, but 105 points given up on average sure looks nice on their team stats page. They are 5-9 on the totals market, but tend to play it even at home, where they are 4-4 this season.
Admi-Rank: The previous game indicates the trends well, and also plays a small role in these ratings. The Heat have been bouncing around the average and will continue to do so. The Wizards are considered a top team in the East and did seem a team to beat judging by the previous duel between the two sides.
All six Heat wins this season have come against teams under .500 and all eight losses have been under teams with sub-.500 records. On the other hand, Washington tends to struggle at home against weaker opposition, and the difference between two sides isn’t unbridgeable. The Heat will need their bench to be their driving force, as home side clearly has the edge when it comes to the starting lineup. It’s rarely mentioned, but officiating also played a role in the first meeting outcome – despite facing the music from the stands, the Heat will probably enjoy hearing different whistle tones from a new officiating crew.
The Wizards have been favored to win this game as well, but the spread of 4.5-points won’t scare many people off. As a common practice to face the team who won the previous game, the books have offered a nice value on the home side. I’m going with 6-point spread here and will be glad to go against the points. If we learned anything from the previous game, it’s that the Wizards are a better team, and they can surely cover this spread, even if we enter a close ending. The totals are not playable. The line has been pushed down from the last encounter and stands at 208.5. I’m at 207, but this is a far cry from what it has to be so we’d have enough of a value to place any wager.
My Pick: Washington -4.5 (-110)
Total: (no total points wager here)
