The Miami Heat (34-30) will try to end their six-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Washington Wizards (36-28) at Capital One Arena. The game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 203.5 points with Washington set as a 5-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards Free Prediction
The last time the Heat played, they blew out the Phoenix Suns, 125-103. The Heat knocked down 19 of their 23 free throws (82.6 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 8.9 (better than their season average of 13.1). With 24 points on 10-for-13 shooting, Hassan Whiteside led Miami in scoring.
The Wizards lost a close one to the Indiana Pacers in their last contest, 98-95. One of Indiana’s largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 22-24 (91.7 percent), while the Wizards were 15-19 (78.9 percent). Bradley Beal had a solid performance for Washington, leading the team in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-27 shooting.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Miami. Miami ranks 21st in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.3 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Washington forces the eighth-most turnovers in the NBA (14.6 percent).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 34-30 straight up (SU) and 32-29-2 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Heat’s games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Washington is 36-28 SU and 30-33-1 ATS. Coinciding with Miami, Wizards games have gone under the projected point total 54.7 percent of the time.
Otto Porter Jr. has averaged 21.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Washington.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Heat won the most recent matchup 91-88, covering as 5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 179 points, which was 26.5 points below the projected point total of 205.5 points. The Heat’s 20.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Wizards, who had a rate of 14.3. Whiteside put up a double-double in the victory with 22 points and 16 rebounds.
Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Wizards, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 22-11 ATS on the road with 18 unders, 14 overs and 1 push.
Washington is 11-20-1 ATS at home with 15 overs, 15 unders and 2 pushes.
Washington is 17-3 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 20-6.
The Wizards are 33-15 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 24-14.
Miami ranks 10th in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while Washington ranks 27th (13.5).
The Wizards rank fifth in assists per game (24.6) while the Heat rank 22nd (22.1).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.8) while Washington ranks 17th (29.5).
The Wizards rank 14th in fast break points per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 27th (8.0).
Miami averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Washington ranks 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.6).
The Wizards average 17.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Heat rank 12th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Washington is 2-2-1 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 8.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Wizards have scored an average of 101.4 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.4 points per game (4.0 below their season average).
