The September 16th make-up game between the 12th ranked Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles going scheduled to go off this weekend in Tallahassee. The in-state grudge match is set for Saturday, October 7th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The terrific rivalry can also be seen on the ESPN Network. Las Vegas has the Hurricanes as a -3 point favorite and the game’s over/under is now at 48.
The Miami Hurricanes are coming into this rivalry on the heels of a decisive 31-6 road victory against the Duke Blue Devils. In that contest, Miami stayed balanced offensively and capitalized some big plays in the passing game and the rushing attack. In fact, both facets of the offense reeled off over 40 yards scores against Duke.
The Florida State Seminoles had a gut-check last weekend against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Finally, they were able to put together some offensive success in the fourth quarter and pulled away for a 26-19 victory. The game was not pretty by any means but it did relieve some pressure on the Seminoles.
(12) Miami Hurricanes (3-0)
The Miami Hurricanes beat a pretty good Duke team on Saturday that had defeated North Carolina, Baylor, and Northwestern. The Hurricanes did not take them lightly and jumped on them early, coasting to a relatively easy ACC road win.
Quarterback Mike Rosier wasn’t stellar but he certainly did enough to keep the offense moving. For the night, he completed 15 of 26 passes for 270 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Overall, Rosier has hit 59 passes for 820 yards with eight scores and two picks.
The Hurricanes like to stay balanced by using their strong running game to keep opposing defenses honest. Although they didn’t have a lot of success against the Blue Devils last week. For that game, Miami ran the ball for 139 yards and two touchdowns. So far, tailback Mark Walton leads the team with 44 attempts for just over 400 yards and three trips to pay-dirt. Walton is questionable for this game against the Seminoles.
Wide receiver Braxton Berrios is the top Miami receiver with 10 catches, 192 yards, and three touchdowns. Even though he leads the team in several categories, he isn’t the only weapon that the Hurricanes have in the passing game. In fact, Ahman Richards led the club with three catches for over 100 yards and a score against the Blue Devils. Statistically, there is still plenty of room for growth among this unit.
Defensively, Miami would be considered a little better than average. The Hurricanes are ranked 92nd in the nation against the pass, allowing 246 yards per game. The front seven is doing better, ranking 56th in the country, giving way to 135 yards per contest. The defense is coming off their best performance of the season versus Duke on the road.
Florida State Seminoles (1-2)
The Florida State Seminoles turned to their ground game to get a much-needed victory against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons last weekend. Junior running back Jacques Patrick is a big back who is not exactly well known on campus. That all changed against Wake forest when he rushed for 120 yards on 19 carries and a trip to the end zone.
Freshman backup quarterback James Blackmon wasn’t asked to do too much in the win last Saturday. The Noles asked him to toss the ball only 21 times and he completed 11 of them. Altogether, the youngster hit for 121 yards and a touchdown. This will be the biggest game of his life and I don’t expect that the Seminoles will ask him to win this one with his arm either.
Wide receiver Ardun Tate was questionable to play against the Demon Deacons. Fortunately, he sucked it up and went out and nabbed two balls for 47 yards and a score. As of this article, Florida State ranks 89th in the nation, throwing the ball for only 203 yards per game. Obviously, the Seminoles are going to have to find some more production if they want to keep the Hurricanes from loading the box to stop the run.
The Seminoles defense has performed well, even though they have been out on the field for a lot of the time. Heading into this match-up, they 33rd in the country allowing 333 yards per game. Their run-stop is solid, ranking 36th in the country giving up 126 yards against their opponents. Undoubtedly, this unit will be leaned on to keep Miami out of the end zone and give their struggling offense a chance to win a low-scoring affair.
Prediction
Well, it’s safe to say that the Miami Hurricanes are glad that they are facing the Seminoles now instead of in their opener. Hurricane Irma aside, the Seminoles are in far worse shape after losing their starting quarterback against Alabama. With that being said, Florida State is still Florida State and oddsmakers reflect that with this three-point line.
Truthfully, the Hurricanes have faced an outstanding offense in the Toledo Rockets. They also have faced a solid defense in the Duke Blue Devils. In both those contests, they looked confident and played with purpose. I fully expect that to be the case once again. Yes, the defense hasn’t been completely dominant, but this is a depleted Seminole offense for this game.
The Seminoles know that they have to win the defensive battle against Miami because their offense might not score more than 20 points. Especially in the trenches, as the Canes love to run to set up their downfield passing attack. Luckily, that is right in Florida States’ wheelhouse. Because of that, I see why line setters have this over/under at 44 points.
I think the best play to make in this game is to put your money with the Hurricanes to cover the -3 point spread. You can always buy this down to two and a half to get the outright victory if you think it will be that close. I don’t. Forget about the low total of 44, even though both defenses should have some success in this game. Instead, take the overall healthier squad and ride the Canes’ in this afternoon battle in Tallahassee.
Trends
The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
The Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
The Under is 4-0 in the Hurricanes last four road games.
The Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win.
The Seminoles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
The Under is 5-1 in the Seminoles last six games overall.
The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
