The struggling Atlanta Braves will look to avoid losing their fifth game in six tries as they play host to the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup and the game gets going at 7:35 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Atlanta (-160) as the favorite over Miami (+150). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -125 for over 8.5 runs and +105 for under 8.5. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -145 for betting the Marlins +1.5 runs and +125 for the Braves -1.5.
The Braves are 54-47 straight up (SU) and 51-49 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 11.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.8 units (ATS). Atlanta has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the total went over in five of those seven. The Marlins are 45-61 SU and have gone 57-49 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 5.1 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 3.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 50-46-4 in 2018. The Marlins have been a decent over bet with a total record of 56-48-2.
The left-handed Wei-Yin Chen is the projected starter for the visiting Marlins. Chen (3-7, 5.65 ERA) has racked up 61 strikeouts in 78 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 3.97 ERA against Atlanta this year (two starts).
The Braves are going with righty Julio Teheran (7-7, 4.42 ERA), who has 101 punchouts and 53 walks, as well as a 1.25 WHIP. Teheran is 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 12.54 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starters have a 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 45 games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.11 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.89.
Atlanta’s offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .229/.304/.380 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Braves’ hitters have been led by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Markakis is slashing .316/.383/.475 with 10 home runs, 62 RBIs and 57 runs scored, and Freeman is batting .313 with 17 homers, 66 RBIs and 62 runs.
For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.15, along with a K/9 of 8.22.
Marlins hitters have slashed .244/.313/.365 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .287/.336/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .283/.363/.413 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.
The Marlins have gained 6.3 units and are 39-38 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 41 of those games, as opposed to 34 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 0.2 units and are 13-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 17 of those games, compared to 14 that’ve gone under.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in just two of Atlanta’s last seven games.
Both teams have launched eight home runs over their last 10 games.
Miami fielders have two errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for Atlanta over its last 10.
The Braves have dropped five of their last six games SU.
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