The streaking New York Mets will go for their fifth straight victory as they play host to the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will be televising the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds
Miami (+110) is the underdog against New York (-120) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at +110 for the over and -130 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at -190 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +165 for the Mets -1.5 runs.
The Mets are 24-19 SU and 20-22 ATS. The team’s gained 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 1.8 units against the spread (ATS). New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins are 17-30 SU and have gone 24-22 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 1.5 units for moneyline bettors through the early portions of the season and 1.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Neither team has positioned itself as a strong over/under bet this year. Mets games have a 20-21-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 23-23.
Caleb Smith will get the nod for Miami. The left-handed Smith is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against New York this year.
The Mets will put the ball in the right hand of Zack Wheeler (2-3, 5.92 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), who’s got 38 punchouts and 17 walks. Wheeler is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.29, a WHIP of 1.33 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 3.71 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 20 games against NL East foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.48 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.54.
New York’s hitters have put up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .233/.287/.396 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and right fielder Brandon Nimmo have led the Mets’ hitters so far. Cabrera is hitting .325/.371/.552 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 25 runs scored, and Nimmo is batting .253 with 19 hits, five RBIs and 15 runs.
Cabrera did not perform very well against left-handed pitching at home in 2017. In 59 such plate appearances, he slashed .268/.288/.286 (compared to his overall season line of .280/.351/.434).
For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.67 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.76, along with a WHIP of 1.33 and a K-per-9 of 9.13.
Marlins hitters have slashed .229/.301/.343 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been led by first baseman Justin Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto, who’ve collectively swatted 15 home runs. Bour is slashing .243/.398/.471 with nine home runs, 23 RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Realmuto (.299/.364/.542) is up to six homers, 13 RBIs and 17 runs scored.
Realmuto thrived hitting against righty pitching on the road last year. Over 247 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .343/.377/.584 (compared to his total season line of .278/.332/.451).
The Marlins have lost 1.1 units and are 17-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 18 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.9 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to six that’ve cashed the under.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 11 over their last 10.
Miami has posted 20.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.2 over its last five.
The Marlins have lost four of their last five games SU.
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