The Miami Marlins will be squaring off against their division rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the matchup and the game gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Vegas is listing Miami (+220) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-240). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at -110 for over 8 runs and -110 for under 8. Runline odds stand at +100 for taking the Marlins +1.5 runs and -120 for the Phillies -1.5.
The Marlins are 46-66 SU and have gone 58-53 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle very much this year, gaining 2.5 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 7.7 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 62-48 SU and 52-57 ATS. They’ve gained 12.7 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 12.9 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.
Phillies games have had an over/under record of 47-57-5 in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 57-52-2.
Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen is the projected starter for the visiting Marlins. Chen is 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA and 62 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of righty Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.35 ERA), who has 142 strikeouts and 38 walks, as well as a WHIP of 0.97. Nola is 1-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 1.35 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.70 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.13, along with a WHIP of 1.34.
Marlins hitters have slashed .243/.310/.364 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .289/.335/.403 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 63 runs scored, while Anderson has a .284 average with nine homers, 52 RBIs and 63 runs scored.
For the home team, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In 42 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.24.
The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .263/.347/.419 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.
The Phillies’ offense has been led by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is hitting .275/.330/.460 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line is .262/.369/.371 with nine homers, 37 RBIs, 69 runs and 14 stolen bases.
The Marlins have gained 4.7 units and are 40-41 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 3.4 units and are 13-12 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 11 of those games, compared to 13 that went under the total.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
Miami has tallied 11 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Philadelphia has 16 XBH over its last five.
Miami has posted 18.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.6 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
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