David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) takes the hill for the Miami Marlins (61-56) as they square off against Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (48-68) in the first of a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 15 and can be seen on FSOH and FSFL.
Finnegan pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking six in a 7-4 win over the Cardinals. Joey Votto (.303, 72 Rs, 19 HRs, 62 RBIs, 7 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. Phelps went 5.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out five and walking three in a 1-0 defeat to the Giants in his last outing. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Miami takes on Cincinnati as a -120 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at nine runs. The Reds have recorded an overall money line of -659 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 32-61. Cincinnati is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 106 bases. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 3.7 runs per game, well under their season average of 5.4.
In games where it is the favorite, Miami has a 29-28 record and an overall money line of +18. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, leading the NL with 9.4 hits per game. Miami is excellent at making contact with just 7.6 strikeouts per game, ranking third in the NL. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are fifth in the NL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game. The Marlins have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.2 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Marlins have the edge in the season series, 3-0. The Reds have a 40-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Phelps takes the mound. Finnegan (LHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a very good 19-8 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 44% (25-32) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Miami has won 50% (26-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Reds have a 12-27 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 36-10. The Marlins have a 50-13 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Miami sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 501 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 511.
Cincinnati and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Cincinnati sits at 26th with 319 this season and Miami ranks 22nd with 333.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 36-38. When the Marlins hit at least one homer, they have a 43-27 record.
