Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.81 ERA), attemping to pick up his 200th strikeout of the season, is on the hill for the Miami Marlins (62-58) as they square off against Dan Straily (8-6, 3.75 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (50-69) in the last of a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 3-2, and Cincinnati leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 18 and can be seen on FSOH and FSFL.
Straily pitched 5.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs and striking out six in an 11-5 win over the Brewers. Jay Bruce (.254, 65 Rs, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one RBI. Fernandez went 6.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking two in an 8-7 defeat to the Giants in his last outing. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Miami takes on Cincinnati as a -163 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Reds have recorded an overall money line of -662 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 32-63. Cincinnati is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 107 bases.
In games where it is the favorite, Miami has a 30-28 record and an overall money line of +54. Offensively, they average four runs per game on the road, which is fifth in the NL. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, leading the NL with 9.4 hits per game. Miami is excellent at making contact with just 7.6 strikeouts per game, ranking fourth in the NL. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are fourth in the NL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game. The Marlins have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.3 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Marlins lead the season series, 4-2. The Reds have a 42-52 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Fernandez takes the mound. Straily (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 41-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after seven innings, Miami is 27-28, while Cincinnati is 27-33.
The Marlins managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are heading in with an 11-11 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 9-54. The Marlins have an 8-38 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Cincinnati ranks 22nd with 128 homers and Miami is 28th with 100.
Miami tops the league in hits with 9.42 per game this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 11th with 8.27.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.711). Miami ranks in the top half at 14th with an OPS of .740.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 27-35. When the Reds allow one or more homers, they have a 36-57 record.
