The Miami Marlins will head north to square off against their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York is in line to broadcast the action and the game will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds
Vegas is listing Miami (+125) as the underdog to New York (-135). The total sits at 7.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-170) and Mets -1.5 runs (+150).
The Mets are 79-78 against the spread (ATS), but just 75-84 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 10.1 units for moneyline bettors and 6.3 units (ATS). New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, have gone 62-96 SU this year and are 81-77 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 4.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.4 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
New York games have an over/under record of 69-79-9 in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 79-74-5.
Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Urena (8-12, 4.07 ERA) has recorded 128 strikeouts in 168 innings so far. He’s 1-2 with 12 strikeouts and a 4.32 ERA against New York this year (three starts).
The Mets will turn to Corey Oswalt (3-3, 6.08 ERA) to the mound. Oswalt has 41 strikeouts and 17 walks to his name, as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Oswalt is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 9.35 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.
New York’s pitchers have given up 4.4 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 73 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.41 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.05.
New York’s offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .205/.326/.353 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto have paced the Mets’ batters this year. Rosario is slashing .257/.296/.384 with nine home runs, 50 RBIs, 76 runs and 22 steals, and Conforto’s line is .245/.354/.455 with 28 homers, 82 RBIs and 77 runs.
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.42 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.63 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.42, along with a K/9 of 7.96.
Marlins hitters have slashed .238/.305/.359 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Miami’s offense has been fueled by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .278/.329/.400 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 76 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .273/.356/.400 with 11 homers, 65 RBIs and 86 runs scored.
The Mets have lost 4.0 units and are 58-57 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 53 of those games, compared to 56 that’ve gone under.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Miami has recorded eight extra-base hits over its last five games. New York has 14 XBH over its last five.
Miami has recorded 19.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
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