Seth Lugo (1-2, 2.51 ERA) and the New York Mets (67-64) meet Tom Koehler (9-9, 3.85 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (67-64) in the second of a four-game division series at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 2-1, and New York leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 30 and will air on SNY and FSFL.
In his last start, Lugo pitched 5.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out five and walking three in a 10-6 victory over the Cardinals. Yoenis Cespedes (.299, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 68 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 5 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Marlins were unsuccessful against the Royals 5-2 the last time Koehler pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing four runs (one unearned), striking out six and walking two. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been doing well offensively for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
New York is favored by a slight -115 margin in its matchup against Miami. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. The Mets are 48-39 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,077. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (3-1). The most recent 10-game stretch for the Mets has gone great. Over that span, New York is averaging 5.4 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.9. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Mets, who allow only 3.9 runs per game. The Mets are the best in the NL in walks allowed, giving up just 2.6 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Marlins come into this game with a win percentage of .538 when playing as the underdog (35-30) and an overall money line of -126. Over the last 10 games, the team is unbeaten as the underdog with a perfect 3-0 record and 5-5 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.6 runs per game, below their 4.1 season average. Miami’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.6 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 8.3 hits per game, good for fourth in the NL.
The Mets have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 13 games this season, earning an 8-5 record. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Koehler) in this game and have a 50-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Lugo. They sport a 46-55 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
The Marlins lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Mets are 21-18. The Marlins are 19-19 in close games this season.
The Mets managed to give up seven walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are coming in with a 3-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 9-40. The Mets have an 18-49 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 106 this season. New York ranks in the top 10 with 174.
Ranking 12th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.11 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at second with 9.33.
New York and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. New York sits at 23rd with an OPS of .723, and Miami ranks 21st with an OPS of .730.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 29-39. When the Mets allow one or more homers, they have a 30-46 record.
