In the third of a four-game series between the New York Mets (68-64) and the Miami Marlins (67-65) at Citi Field, Bartolo Colon (12-7, 3.44 ERA) and David Phelps (7-6, 2.52 ERA) get the start. The Mets won the last game 7-4, and New York leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 31 and will air on SNY and FSFL.
In his most recent outing, Colon pitched 7.0 innings, giving up four runs, striking out six and walking two in a 9-4 victory over the Phillies. Jay Bruce (.246, 66 Rs, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run. The Marlins were also victorious the last time Phelps pitched. He went 3.2 innings, allowing four runs (one unearned), striking out six and walking three in a 7-6 victory over the Padres. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been doing well offensively for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
New York is a -123 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Mets have a 48-39 record and overall money line at -1,077. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (3-1). Over their past 10 games, New York’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 5.4 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.9. The Mets rank fifth in the majors in home runs with 177. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Mets, who allow only 3.9 runs per game. The Mets don’t give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the NL with only 2.7 walks allowed per game.
On the other side, the Marlins have a record of 35-30 when they are the underdog and are -126 overall with the money line. Over the last 10 games, the team is unbeaten as the underdog with a perfect 3-0 record and 5-5 SU. The Marlins will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Miami’s run production has dropped to 2.6 runs per game, compared to 3.9 for the duration of the season. Miami’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.6 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 8.3 hits per game, good for fourth in the NL.
The Mets have gotten the best of the Marlins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 9-5. This game will feature Phelps (RHP) on the mound against the Mets, who have a 50-46 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Colon will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 46-55 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after seven innings, Miami is 29-30, while New York is 25-26.
The Marlins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Mets who are heading in with a 29-18 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 9-41. The Mets have an 18-49 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 108 this season. New York ranks in the top five with 177.
Ranking 12th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.10 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at second with 9.30.
Ranking 22nd, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.726). Miami ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .732.
The Marlins are 29-40 when they allow at least one home run. The Mets perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 31-46 record.
