Jose Fernandez (5-0, 2.18 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (66-87) meet Ryan Weber (0-1, 3.26 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (62-91) in the first of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 25 and will air on FSFL and FSSO.
In his most recent outing, Fernandez pitched 5.2 innings, giving up two runs, striking out eight and walking two in a 5-4 loss to the Nationals. The Braves were unsuccessful to the Phillies 2-1 the last time Weber pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out five and walking two. Freddie Freeman (.278, 58 Rs, 17 HRs, 64 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Braves, going 2 for 2 Wednesday with one run, one home run, and five RBIs.
Miami is a considerable -225 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is six runs. The Marlins are 26-29 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,519. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 29-40 and a 12-17 record when they were the favorite. The Marlins are a stellar hitting team with 8.7 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the NL. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 106 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball.
On the other side, the Braves have a subpar record of 44-77 when they are the underdog and are -1,771 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 32-38 SU and 20-28 as the underdog. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Atlanta batters, who average an NL-low 6.9 strikeouts per game.
The Braves have gotten the better of the Marlins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 10-6. This game will feature Weber (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have a 52-70 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the right-hander Fernandez. They sport a 51-70 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Under
Notes
Miami earned its 12th shutout of the season in its last game. Atlanta has been shut out 16 times this season.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Braves have a 23-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 11-66. The Marlins have a 14-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks at the bottom of the league when it comes to home runs, hitting 91 this season. Miami ranks near the bottom at 29th with 113.
Ranking 11th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.41 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.70.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.672). Miami ranks near the bottom at 28th with an OPS of .689.
The Braves are 26-68 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 28-58 record.
