The streaking Atlanta Braves will go for their fifth consecutive victory as they play host to the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Miami (+210) is the underdog to Atlanta (-230) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +105 for the under and -125 for the over. Runline odds stand at -105 for picking the Marlins +1.5 runs and -115 for the Braves -1.5.
The Marlins have gone 48-74 SU this year and are 62-59 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 67-51 SU and 61-55 ATS. The team has gained 20.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.8 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Atlanta games have an over/under record of 57-54-5 in 2018. Marlins games have gone over 60 times, gone under 57 times and pushed on four occasions.
Right-hander Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Urena is 3-12 with a 4.74 ERA and 104 strikeouts. He’s 0-3 with 11 strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA against Atlanta this year (three starts).
The Braves will turn to righty Kevin Gausman (6-9, 4.27 ERA) to the mound. Gausman has 114 punchouts and 34 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Gausman is 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.1 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 58 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.13 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.96.
The Atlanta hitters have produced 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .322/.366/.602 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ hitters have been led by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Markakis is hitting .324/.386/.503 with 14 home runs, 76 RBIs and 69 runs scored, while Freeman is batting .320 with 20 homers, 75 RBIs and 75 runs.
For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.16, along with a K/9 of 8.17.
Marlins hitters have slashed .240/.307/.359 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Miami’s offense has been sparked by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .281/.330/.395 with nine home runs, 43 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Anderson (.278/.357/.405) has produced nine homers, 53 RBIs and 64 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 0.9 units and are 44-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 43 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 19.8 units and are 45-35 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 39 of those games, compared to 37 that’ve cashed the under.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in just two of Atlanta’s last seven games.
The Marlins have hit five home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 18 over their last 10.
Atlanta has posted 27 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 29 over its last five.
The Marlins have dropped seven of their last eight games SU.
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