Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.60 ERA) takes the hill for the Atlanta Braves (17-19) as they square off against Tom Koehler (2-3, 4.29 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (16-21) in the last of a three-game series at Marlins Park. The Braves won the last game 5-3 and Atlanta leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and can be seen on FSN-S and FSN-FL.
Koehler is 1-3 with a 2.98 ERA in his appearances against the Braves, but goes up against a quality Atlanta offense which is batting .259 this season. Dee Gordon (.425, 21 Rs, 14 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with two RBIs. Miller is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA against the Marlins in his career. He takes on a good Miami offense that’s batting .269. Freddie Freeman (.317, 24 Rs, 5 HRs, 18 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Miami is a -137 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -454 and a record as the favorite of 8-9. Miami has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. Miami’s pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.7 against fellow NL East members, compared to its 4.1 season average. The Marlins are the third-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.1 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Atlanta has a 11-15 record and an overall money line of -87. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 4-6 record SU. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out with an NL-low 6.3 per game.
The Braves have controlled the season series, 6-2. The Marlins have a bad 11-19 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Miller takes the mound. Koehler (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 14-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Over
Notes
For the fourth time this season, the Braves registered at least two errors in a game.
When the Marlins play into extra innings, they have a 1-0 record. The Braves are 0-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Braves are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Marlins have a 5-14 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 2-13. The Marlins have a 2-12 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami and Atlanta both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Miami sits at 27th with 24 home runs this season and Atlanta ranks 24th with 26.
Ranking 10th, Atlanta is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.49 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.08.
Ranking 18th, Miami is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.707). Atlanta ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .710.
When the Braves allow at least one home run, they are 6-13, well-matched with the Marlins who are 8-13 when allowing at least one homer.
