Tom Koehler (2-3, 3.70 ERA) and Miguel Gonzalez (5-2, 3.24 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (17-27) and the Baltimore Orioles (19-21) at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 1-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 24 and can be seen on MASN2 and FSN-FL.
Koehler pitched 6.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs (two unearned), striking out three and walking two in a 4-2 defeat to the Diamondbacks. Dee Gordon (.379, 24 Rs, 14 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 6 yesterday with one stolen base. Gonzalez went 7.0 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out eight and walking two in a 9-4 win over the Mariners in his most recent start. Jimmy Paredes (.352, 19 Rs, 6 HRs, 24 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate for the Orioles, going 2 for 6 yesterday.
Miami is a narrow -115 favorite at home against Baltimore. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Marlins have recorded an overall money line of -1,322 and have shown a weak performance as a favorite this season with a record of 8-16. Miami has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Marlins have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. Miami’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 5.9 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.3. The Marlins are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.8 walks per game so far this season.
Over in the other dugout, Baltimore is coming in with an overall money line of -171 and a disappointing record of 7-11 as the underdog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 6-4 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Orioles have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.6 runs per game by averaging 3.7 in those contests.
The Marlins have a bad 11-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Gonzalez takes the mound. Koehler (RHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 16-16 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
Miami won its last game in a shutout, its third of the season. Baltimore has been shut out three times this season.
When the Marlins play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Orioles are 1-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 3-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 14-9. The Orioles have a 15-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 22nd in runs, Miami has earned 168 this season. Baltimore ranks 15th with 180 runs.
Ranking 26th, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 103 this season. Miami ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 114.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 7-14. When the Orioles hit at least one homer, they have a 16-12 record.
