In the first of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (16-26) and the Baltimore Orioles (16-26) at Marlins Park, Henderson Alvarez (0-3, 6.23 ERA) and Ubaldo Jimenez (3-3, 2.43 ERA) get the start. The Marlins go into this series on a seven-game losing streak. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 22 and will air on MASN2 and FSN-FL.
Alvarez is 1-2 with a 3.12 ERA against the Orioles in his career, but faces a strong Baltimore offense that’s hitting .260 on the year. Giancarlo Stanton (.239, 26 Rs, 12 HRs, 39 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and one RBI. In his career against the Marlins, Jimenez is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA. He meets a solid Miami offense that’s batting .259. Jimmy Paredes (.342, 19 Rs, 6 HRs, 23 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Miami is a small -115 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Marlins perform poorly as a favorite with an 8-14 record and have an overall money line of -1,082. They have a winless record (0-6) in games played as the favorite during their last 10 games. Miami has averaged 2.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.8. Miami’s pitchers struggle against teams that play in the American League. The Marlins have given up an average of 6.3 runs to opponents from the AL, well over their defense’s season average of 4.2. The Marlins are fifth in the NL in walks allowed with just 2.7 per game.
Across the field, the Orioles have a subpar record of 6-11 when they are the underdog and are -371 overall with the money line. NL opponents have totally shut down Baltimore this season. The Orioles have gone without a win, holding a record of 0-2 in games where they were ranked as the underdog. When it comes to scoring runs, the Orioles haven’t performed as well against teams from the NL. During those games, they averaged one runs per game, below their 4.5 season average.
The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Jimenez) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 11-23. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Alvarez. They sport a 15-16 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
Miami has won 37% (7-12) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 47% (7-8) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Orioles have a record of 7-10 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 1-12. The Marlins have a 2-16 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 27th when it comes to home runs, hitting 26 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 46.
Ranking sixth, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.66 per game. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.73.
Ranking 24th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.680). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .740.
The Orioles are 8-15 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with an 8-14 record.
