The Miami Marlins will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Cincinnati (-125) is the favorite over Miami (+115) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (-180) and Reds +-1.5 runs (+160).
The Marlins have gone 12-20 SU this year and are 15-16 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 3.7 units ATS. Miami’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 8-25 SU and 16-16 ATS. They’ve lost 14.6 units for moneyline bettors and 5.2 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Cincinnati games have a 15-17 over/under record so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 14-17.
The right-handed Dan Straily is the probable starter for Miami. Straily is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 3.00 ERA and four strikeouts across six innings).
The Reds are turning to lefty Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 7.27 ERA), who’s got 12 strikeouts and 12 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 2.02. Finnegan did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.4 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 5.35, a WHIP of 1.45 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.9. The bullpen has a 4.96 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.5 K/9.
The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .213/.326/.342 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ offense has been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and first baseman Joey Votto. Suarez is hitting .300/.411/.600 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 10 runs scored, and Votto’s line is .267/.394/.405 with four homers, 15 RBIs and 12 runs scored.
Suarez performed well against righties at home in 2017, slashing .279/.380/.604 over 229 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .260/.367/.461).
In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.81, along with a WHIP of 1.33 and a K/9 of 10.12.
The Marlins offense has slashed .224/.295/.329 on its way to 3.3 runs scored per game this season, including 3.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Miami’s offense has been powered by first baseman Justin Bour and second baseman Starlin Castro. Bour is slashing .240/.342/.448 with six home runs, 15 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Castro is slashing .308/.363/.392 with one homers, 13 RBIs and 17 runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .299/.337/.452, Castro didn’t seem to enjoy batting against lefties on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .235/.291/.373 across 55 such plate appearances.
The Marlins have lost 0.2 units and are 4-3 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 12.8 units and are 13-13 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 12 of those games, compared to 14 that went under.
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
Cincinnati has recorded 23.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.4 over its last five.
Each team has hit 11 home runs over its last 10 games.
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