The Miami Marlins will be facing off against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be airing this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Miami (+105) is coming into this one as the underdog against Cincinnati (-115) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (-200) and Reds +-1.5 runs (+170).
The Reds are only 8-24 SU and 15-16 ATS. The team has lost 15.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.9 units against the spread (ATS). The Marlins have gone 11-20 SU this year and are 15-15 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 0.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 1.7 units ATS.
Reds games have a 15-16 over/under record so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 14-16.
Left-hander Caleb Smith is projected to start for the visiting Marlins. Smith is 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA and 41 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Reds will turn to righty Tyler Mahle (2-3, 4.32 ERA) to the mound. Mahle has 38 strikeouts and 11 walks to his name, as well as a 1.32 WHIP. Mahle did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 5.3 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 5.38, a WHIP of 1.47 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.9. The bullpen has a 4.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.
The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 4.0 runs per outing, including 5.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .257/.364/.407 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ offense has been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and first baseman Joey Votto. Suarez is hitting .321/.435/.643 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Votto’s line is .259/.391/.393 with four homers, 15 RBIs and 12 runs scored.
Suarez performed well against lefties at home last season. Over 69 such plate appearances, he slashed .255/.391/.564 (his total season line was .260/.367/.461).
In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.96 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.94, along with a WHIP of 1.35.
Marlins hitters have slashed .224/.296/.325 on their way to 3.2 runs scored per game this year, including 3.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been powered by third baseman Brian Anderson and first baseman Justin Bour. Anderson is slashing .265/.366/.372 with 30 hits, 16 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Bour is slashing .237/.343/.419 with 22 hits, five homers, 14 RBIs and nine runs scored.
The Marlins have gained 0.1 units and are 11-12 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 10 of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 2.9 units and are 2-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in three of those games, as opposed to two that’ve cashed the under.
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in only two of Miami’s last seven games.
Miami has recorded 17.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.8 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 14 over their last 10.
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