The Miami Marlins will head north to play the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast this NL matchup. The game is scheduled to get underway at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Vegas is listing Miami (+182) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-195). The total sits at 9 runs and bettors can take the over for -120 and the under for an even +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-120) and Brewers +-1.5 runs (+100).
The Marlins are just 5-12 SU and are 6-11 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 6.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 10-9 SU and 9-9 ATS. The team’s gained 0.6 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.6 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Brewers games have an over/under record of 8-10 so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 10-7.
Southpaw Dillon Peters will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. Peters is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and eight strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 19.64 ERA and four strikeouts across 3.2 innings).
The Brewers will send righty Chase Anderson (1-1, 2.82 ERA) to the hill. Anderson has 18 punchouts and seven walks to his credit, as well as a 0.99 WHIP. Anderson did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.
Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.23 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 7.40 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.04, along with a K/9 of 9.97.
The Marlins offense has slashed .228/.302/.309 on its way to 3.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Miami’s offense has been led by shortstop Miguel Rojas and third baseman Brian Anderson. Rojas is hitting .299/.356/.433 with 20 hits, four RBIs and seven runs scored, while Anderson (.246/.387/.361) has produced 15 hits, 10 RBIs and nine runs scored.
Maintaining a slash line of .250/.328/.306 across 122 plate appearances, Rojas didn’t perform especially well against righty pitching on the road last season (his total season line was .290/.361/.375).
For the home team, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.07, a WHIP of 1.33 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.2. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.14, a WHIP of 1.22 and a K/9 of 10.6.
The Milwaukee offense is putting up 3.4 runs per contest, including 3.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .224/.298/.335 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar have led the way for the Brewers’ offense this year. Thames is slashing .231/.322/.673 with seven home runs, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Aguilar’s line is .375/.464/.458 with nine hits, zero RBIs and five runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .247/.359/.518, Thames didn’t do very well against lefties at home in 2017, slashing .188/.304/.438 over 56 such plate appearances.
The Marlins have lost 1.6 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Brewers have lost 1.0 units and are 2-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to three which went under the total.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The Miami defense has allowed zero errors over its last five games, compared to four errors for Milwaukee over its last five.
The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 11 over their last 10.
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