Justin Nicolino (3-2, 3.07 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (57-80) meet Zach Davies (0-0, 8.31 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (60-76) in the first of a three-game series at Marlins Park. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 7 and will air on FSFL and FSWI.
In his last start, Nicolino pitched 7.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out three and walking two in a 7-1 victory over the Braves. Justin Bour (.257, 31 Rs, 16 HRs, 51 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Brewers were unsuccessful the last time Davies pitched. He did not do well, pitching 4.1 innings, allowing four runs, striking out three and walking three in a 9-4 loss to the Pirates. Ryan Braun (.284, 81 Rs, 25 HRs, 80 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Miami is a -122 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Marlins are 23-27 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,972. They have SU record of 5-5 and are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0) over their last 10 games. The Marlins are a dangerous hitting team with 330 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 98 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball.
Switching gears, the Brewers come into this game with a win percentage of .415 when playing as the underdog (34-48) and an overall money line of -1,397. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 5-2 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 7-3. Milwaukee has been playing better lately, averaging 6.2 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Milwaukee batters, who rank fifth in the NL with 7.7 strikeouts per road game.
The Marlins are 2-1 against the Brewers this season. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Davies) in this game and have a 45-63 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Nicolino will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 41-61 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Milwaukee is 33-29, while Miami is 26-42.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are heading in with a 22-14 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 41-20. The Brewers have a 45-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, Miami has earned 509 this season. Milwaukee ranks 17th with 560 runs.
Miami and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Miami sits at 28th with 317 this season and Milwaukee ranks 23rd with 339.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 35-39. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 46-30 record.
