David Phelps (4-7, 3.93 ERA) and Matt Harvey (9-7, 2.91 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (43-64) and the New York Mets (57-50) at Marlins Park. The Mets won the last game 5-1, continuing a five-game winning streak. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 5 and can be seen on FSFL and SNY.
Phelps pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs, striking out two and walking one in an 8-3 defeat to the Padres. Christian Yelich (.269, 35 Rs, 6 HRs, 26 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Harvey went 7.2 innings, surrendering one run and striking out nine in a 2-1 defeat to the Nationals in his last outing. Lucas Duda (.248, 54 Rs, 21 HRs, 50 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Mets, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.
New York takes on Miami as a -135 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at six runs. The Marlins have recorded an overall money line of -1,995 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 22-42. Miami has gone winless (0-6) as the underdog and 2-8 SU in its last 10 outings. The Marlins have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.5 runs per game. The Marlins lead the MLB in extra base hits with 248. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 72 bases. As for the pitchers, the Marlins are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting hits to their opponents, allowing only 8.3 hits per game so far this season.
In the other locker room, New York is coming in with an overall money line of +660 and an impressive record of 43-15 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 7-2 record, and an 8-2 record SU. Offensively, the Mets have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.6 runs per game by averaging 5.9 during that stretch. The Mets have a dynamic offense, ranking fifth in the league with 276 extra base hits. New York’s pitching staff is one of the top in the NL, with a 3.24 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Mets are the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.16 for the season.
The Mets lead the season series, 8-4. The Marlins have a 34-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Harvey takes the mound. Phelps (RHP) will be on the hill against the Mets, who have a 46-40 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games.
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home.
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Miami’s last 22 games when playing NY Mets.
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Mets.
Miami has won 36% (20-35) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 59% (24-17) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Marlins have a 12-29 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 9-41. The Mets have a 13-41 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 28th when it comes to home runs, hitting 80 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 14th with 95.
Ranking 15th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.95 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.41.
Ranking 30th, New York is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.672). Miami ranks near the bottom at 29th with an OPS of .674.
The Mets are 23-34 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Marlins are 19-39 when they allow at least one homer.
