Brad Hand (4-4, 4.54 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (56-79) meet Bartolo Colon (12-11, 4.42 ERA) and the New York Mets (74-60) in the second of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 6-5 and Miami leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 5 and will air on FSFL and WPIX.
In his last start, Hand pitched 4.2 innings, giving up five runs, striking out five and walking two in a 7-4 loss to the Nationals. Justin Bour (.252, 30 Rs, 15 HRs, 50 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one RBI. The Mets were victorious over the Phillies 3-1 the last time Colon pitched. He went 8.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out nine and walking one. Yoenis Cespedes (.294, 87 Rs, 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Mets, going 2 for 6 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs.
Miami is a +144 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Marlins have a losing record of 33-52 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -1,872. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 22-33 and a 12-17 record when they were the underdog. The Marlins rank second in the majors in extra base hits with 326. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 97 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball.
On the other side, the Mets have a nice record of 58-23 when they are favored and are +886 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 36-19 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 31-11 record. New York has been playing better lately, averaging 5.9 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have the third-lowest ERA in the NL at 3.44. They have a WHIP of 1.17 on the year, good for tops in the league.
The Mets have gotten the better of the Marlins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 9-5. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Colon) in this game and have a 45-62 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Hand will take the mound against the Mets, who have a 16-13 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami’s last 8 games when playing NY Mets.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets.
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against NY Mets.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets.
The Mets sit at 36-19 against their divisional rivals, while the Marlins are 22-33.
Miami has won 38% (26-42) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 57% (29-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Marlins have a 19-37 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 40-20. The Mets have a 53-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 505 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 555.
Ranking 28th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 314 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 13th with 391.
The Marlins are 34-39 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Mets are 49-25 when they hit at least one homer.
