The Miami Marlins are traveling north to play their NL East nemesis Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Oddsmakers are listing Philadelphia (-170) as the favorite over Miami (+160). The total stands at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on either the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -135 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +115 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.
The Phillies are 74-71 straight up (SU) and 67-78 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.8 units for moneyline bettors and 20.9 units (ATS). Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Marlins are 57-89 SU and have gone 74-70 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 2.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.1 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.
Phillies games have a 64-75-6 over/under record in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 72-67-5.
Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. Chen (6-10, 4.72 ERA) has recorded 98 strikeouts in 118.1 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies will turn to righty Zach Eflin (9-7, 4.42 ERA), who has 107 punchouts and 30 walks to his name as well as a 1.29 WHIP. Eflin is 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.4 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 3.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 63 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.01 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.49.
Philadelphia’s hitters have produced 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .257/.342/.404 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Hernandez is hitting .256/.361/.355 with 11 home runs, 49 RBIs, 83 runs and 18 stolen bases, and Herrera’s line is .257/.313/.427 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 61 runs.
For the visitors, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.62 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.39, along with a K/9 of 8.00.
Marlins hitters have slashed .238/.306/.360 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game this season, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .284/.334/.405 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .272/.355/.398 with 10 homers, 59 RBIs and 80 runs scored.
The Marlins have gained 1.0 units and are 54-56 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 53 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 0.8 units and are 15-19 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 16 that went under the total.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in three of Miami’s last seven outings.
The Marlins have lost five of their last six games SU while the Phillies have lost six of their last seven.
Miami has posted 14.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 12.6 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
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