Dan Haren (2-1, 3.38 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (11-12) meet Cole Hamels (1-2, 3.19 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (8-16) in the second of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 4-3 and Miami leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 2 and will air on CSN-PHI and FSN-FL.
Haren has a 4.64 ERA and a 1-6 record in his career against the Phillies, but is up against a struggling Philadelphia offense that’s hitting just .221 on the year. Dee Gordon (.423, 12 Rs, 11 RBIs, 9 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 3 for 4 with one run and one stolen base. In his pitching opportunities against the Marlins, Hamels is 9-14 with a 3.09 ERA. He meets a solid Miami offense that’s batting .268. Odubel Herrera (.299, 10 Rs, 8 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Miami is a -120 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Marlins are 6-7 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -327. They have an SU record of 9-10 against teams in their division and a 5-5 record when they were the favorite in those games. Over their past 10 games, Miami’s pitchers have been playing lights out, only allowing 2.9 runs per game, below their season average of 4.0. The Marlins don’t give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking second in the NL with only 7.6 hits allowed per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .350 when playing as the underdog (7-13) and an overall money line of -552. Against divisional foes, they are 6-10 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 5-9 record. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Philadelphia batters, who rank second in the NL with 6.6 strikeouts per game. Playing against NL East foes really brings the best out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allow 4.2 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 4.7.
In their previous four games this season, the Marlins have a 3-1 record. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Haren. They sport a 6-13 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Under
Notes
The Phillies lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Marlins are 4-4. The Phillies are 3-3 in close games this season.
When the Marlins play into extra innings, they have a 1-0 record. The Phillies are 1-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Phillies managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are heading in with a 7-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 1-5. The Phillies have a 3-14 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Miami ranks 27th with 13 homers and Philadelphia is 23rd with 14.
Ranking 15th, Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.30 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.82.
Ranking 30th, Philadelphia is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.607). Miami ranks in the top half at 14th with an OPS of .702.
The Phillies are 5-9 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Marlins are 7-7 when they allow at least one homer.
