Tom Koehler (2-2, 4.50 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (10-12) go up against Jerome Williams (2-1, 3.80 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (8-15) in the first of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 1 and will air on TCN-PHI and FSN-FL.
Koehler has a 4.13 ERA and a 2-1 record in his career against the Phillies, and faces a less-than-stellar Philadelphia offense that’s hitting just .223 on the year. Giancarlo Stanton (.284, 16 Rs, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong season Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Marlins, Williams is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA. He gets a solid Miami offense that’s batting .264. Freddy Galvis (.355, 9 Rs, 1 HR, 8 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Miami is a -168 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Marlins have a 6-7 record and overall money line at -327. They have an SU record of 9-10 against teams in their division and a 5-5 record when they were the favorite in those games. Over their past 10 games, Miami’s pitchers have been playing lights out, only allowing 2.9 runs per game, below their season average of 4.0. The Marlins are second in the NL in hits allowed with just 7.6 per game.
Switching gears, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .368 when playing as the underdog (7-12) and an overall money line of -452. Against fellow NL East members, they are 6-10 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 5-9 record. The Phillies average just 6.6 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL.
The Marlins are 2-1 against the Phillies this season. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Williams) in this game and have a 7-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Koehler will take the mound against the Phillies, who have a 6-13 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Under
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Philadelphia is 6-7, while Miami is 5-6.
The Marlins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Phillies who are coming in with a 3-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Marlins have a slight leg up on the Phillies, as the Marlins have won their last two games while the Phillies have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 9-5. The Phillies have a 5-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 63 this season. Miami ranks 11th with 97 runs.
Ranking 21st, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 56 this season. Miami ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 57.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 4-5. When the Phillies hit at least one homer, they have a 3-6 record.
