The Miami Marlins will head north to play their divisional nemesis Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to Fox SportsNet Florida.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Vegas is listing Philadelphia (-175) as the favorite over Miami (+165). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -105 and the under for -115. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-135) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+115).
The Phillies are 58-46 straight up (SU) and 50-57 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 10.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 15.2 units (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins are 45-61 SU and have gone 58-51 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 4.5 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 5.0 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.
Phillies games have an over/under record of 47-55-5 in 2018. The Marlins have been a decent over bet with a total record of 57-50-2.
Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Urena (3-10, 4.40 ERA) has recorded 98 strikeouts in 118.2 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).
The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of righty Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.02 ERA), who’s got 122 strikeouts and 42 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.24. Velasquez is 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff has yielded 4.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 39 games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.54 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.37.
Philadelphia’s offense is putting up 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .242/.303/.510 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Phillies’ hitters have been led by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is hitting .273/.328/.464 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line is .269/.374/.374 with eight homers, 35 RBIs, 66 runs and 14 stolen bases.
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.15, along with a K/9 of 8.22.
The Marlins offense has slashed .244/.313/.365 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced Miami’s offense. Castro is hitting .287/.336/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .283/.363/.413 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.
The Marlins have gained 6.7 units and are 40-39 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 36 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 7.3 units and are 37-45 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 36 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve gone under.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
Miami has logged eight extra-base hits over its last five games. Philadelphia has 23 XBH over its last five.
Miami has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 17.6 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 22 over their last 10.
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