Jarred Cosart (1-1, 2.49 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (12-12) meet Severino Gonzalez (0-1, 23.62 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (8-17) in the last of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The Phillies lost the last game 7-0, extending a five-game losing streak. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 3 and will air on CSN-PHI and FSN-FL.
In his last start, Cosart pitched 8.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out two and walking three in a 3-1 loss to the Mets. Dee Gordon (.440, 15 Rs, 11 RBIs, 11 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 3 with three runs and two stolen bases. The Phillies were unsuccessful to the Cardinals 11-5 the last time Gonzalez pitched. He went 2.2 innings, allowing seven runs and walking two. Freddy Galvis (.341, 9 Rs, 1 HR, 8 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday.
Miami, a -173 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Philadelphia. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Marlins have a 7-7 record and overall money line at -227. They have an SU record of 10-10 against teams in their division and a 6-5 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Marlins have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.4 runs per game. The Marlins are an exceptional hitting team with 8.8 hits per home game, one of the highest marks in the NL. The most recent 10 game stretch for Miami’s pitching staff has gone great. Over that span, Miami’s opponents are averaging 2.5 runs per game, below their season average of 3.9. The Marlins are the best in the NL in hits allowed, giving up just 7.5 per game.
On the other side, the Phillies have a subpar record of 7-14 when they are the underdog and are -652 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 2-6 record. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Philadelphia batters, who rank second in the NL with 6.7 strikeouts per game. Philadelphia’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.2 runs per game against teams from the NL East, lower than their season average of 4.7.
The Marlins are 4-1 against the Phillies this season. This game will feature Gonzalez (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have an 8-11 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Cosart. They sport a 6-14 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Under
Notes
After last game’s shutout win against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Marlins now have two shutouts this season. The Phillies have been shut out in three games this season.
When leading after 7 innings, Miami is 6-6, while Philadelphia is 6-8.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Phillies have a 0-3 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Marlins have a slight leg up on the Phillies, as the Marlins have won their last four games while the Phillies have lost their last five.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 11-5. The Phillies have a 5-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Philadelphia sits at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 66 this season. Miami ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 108.
Ranking 22nd, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 59 this season. Miami ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 65.
The Marlins are 5-5 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 3-7 when they hit at least one homer.
