The Eastern Conference Finals have undeniably shifted in favor of the Miami Heat, but will the two-time defending NBA champions finish off this series in five games? That’s the question bettors have to deal with in this game. The odds of Miami winning this series are extremely good. The odds of Miami winning this game? Relatively even.
Why The Heat Can Win:
They have unnerved and rattled the Pacers. This is not a hard point to grasp, and it’s an easy point to establish. Miami has taken genuine control of the Eastern Conference Finals series by any reasonable measurement. The Heat have caused the Pacers to complain about the officiating, their own coaching staff, and each other. Indiana guard Lance Stephenson has tried to play mind games, but his attempt plainly failed when he was shut out for three and a half quarters of Game 4. George Hill has played mediocre defense. Roy Hibbert has disappeared again, vanishing in Game 4 after being less than impressive in Games 2 and 3. The Pacers’ bench has made brief contributions, but head coach Frank Vogel really hasn’t trusted Luis Scola with a lot of minutes in the fourth quarter. Paul George has been okay, but Indiana needs him to be extremely good in order to win this series. Indiana shows no signs of being able to win three straight games, and since the Pacers have been bickering so much over the past few days, they might not be able to regroup for this game.
Miami, on the other hand, is completely confident. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are playing really well, while Chris Bosh finally sprang to life in Game 4. The Heat have better stars and a better coach, Erik Spoelstra, who has outflanked Vogel by a large margin.
Why The Pacers Can Win:
They are at their best when their season is on the line and when they are doubted by everyone. It’s true that they’re playing the Heat and not the Washington Wizards or the Atlanta Hawks, but this is still a characteristic of the Pacers. They don’t give up completely. They lose focus and go through all sorts of mood swings, but when they’re about to die, they finally start competing. Indiana fell behind Atlanta, 2-1, in the first round. It won Game 4 on the road. Indiana fell behind Atlanta, 3-2, and then won Game 6 on the road. Indiana won a Game 7 against the Hawks. It then beat Washington when it trailed 1-0 in the series. The Pacers got annihilated in Game 5 of that series at home but then spanked Washington on the road in Game 6. The Pacers respond well to blowout losses and generally terrible performances. They’re an odd team, but it would be kind of odd to see Indiana win this game, too. That’s how the Pacers go about their business.
Outlook
This feels like a game in which there won’t be a blowout in either direction. Miami is too solid to get blown away, while Indiana has too much on the line to quit. The Pacers are a strange team, and that strangeness means they’ll probably regroup just enough to keep their season going for two more days. Indiana’s probably not going to extend this series to seven games, but it will find a way to extend it to six games.
Pick: Pacers +2
