The Baltimore Ravens entered free agency needing receivers and managed to snag one of the best available in Michael Crabtree.
Crab(trees) and football.
That’s what Maryland does. pic.twitter.com/BbxfiDAIFu— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) March 16, 2018
Crabtree is coming off of a down year, is entering his 10th season and will turn 31 in September. However, he is walking into a situation that could give him a fantasy resurgence through sheer volume. The bad news is volume doesn’t tend to mean much in Baltimore.
Reasons to Get Excited
Top Receiver
Crabtree will be the Ravens’ unquestioned number-one receiver. Baltimore’s three most-targeted receivers in 2017–Mike Wallace, Benjamin Watson and Jeremy Maclin–are all gone. Crabtree’s newfound opportunity is exhibited through the Available Air Yards metric.
No team has lost more targets, target share, air yards or air yard share than Baltimore. Since Crabtree’s main competition for targets–former Cardinal John Brown and 2015 first-rounder Breshad Perriman–are notoriously unreliable, Crabtree is easily the most attractive option in Baltimore.
Pass-Heavy Offense
That could be a lucrative position considering how much the Ravens like to throw the ball. They threw the 10th-most passes in the league in 2017 after throwing more than any other team in both 2015 and 2016. Should this trend continue, Crabtree will have more opportunities than he’s ever seen before.
Touchdowns
What has made Crabtree a viable fantasy option is his ability to get in the end zone. He has 25 touchdowns over the past three seasons, including eight in 2017 when he only caught 58 passes for 618 yards.
Wallace and Watson were also Baltimore’s two most-targeted receivers in the red zone, so Crabtree will benefit from filling that role as well. He and Antonio Brown are the only receivers to score at least eight touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Inefficient Passing Game
The Ravens averaged an abysmal 5.7 yards per pass attempt in 2017. That was the worst average in the league by a substantial margin. The 31st-ranked team, the Giants, averaged 6.1 yards.
Baltimore also ranked 29th in passing yards and tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns. An abundance of targets in that kind of offense wouldn’t mean much, just like it didn’t mean much to Baltimore’s receivers last year.
Baltimore Receiver Fantasy History
Most Raven receivers don’t help fantasy teams. Over the last three seasons, only one Baltimore receiver finished in the top 25 in non-PPR scoring. That was Wallace, who finished 25th in 2016. Wallace was also their top receiver in 2017, which was good for a WR38 ranking. Kamar Aiken finished 31st in 2015. Clearly, being the top guy in Baltimore is not a sure path to fantasy relevance.
Focus From Opposing Defenses
While Crabtree will benefit from being the unquestioned number-one receiver in terms of target share, that also means he gets extra attention from the defense. In Oakland, he benefited from safeties rolling toward Amari Cooper. Brown and Perriman won’t get that sort of attention, assuming they’re even active. Crabtree will be in for a frustrating season if he faces extra coverage on a weekly basis.
Conclusion
Crabtree has been fun to own over the last few seasons due to the typically low price that accompanied his WR2 production. He would routinely outscore Cooper despite lasting much longer in the draft. The bargain days may be over.
If the Ravens don’t add another competent receiver through free agency or the draft, the fantasy hype machine is going to fall in love with Crabtree’s potential target share. That’s a good reason to covet him, but don’t let the hype lead you to overpay. If his price tag is in line with a mid-to-high-tier WR3, go for it. Otherwise, avoiding Baltimore’s passing game altogether is typically a good option.
