The Illinois Fighting Illini (10-10, 0-7 Big 10) will try to snap their five-game losing streak when they square off against the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (17-3, 5-2 Big 10) at State Farm Center. The game is scheduled to get underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 143.5 points with Michigan State set as an 11-point favorite.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Prediction
The Spartans come in on a high note after thoroughly outplaying the Indiana Hoosiers in their last outing, 85-57. The Spartans held the Hoosiers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.5 (below their season average of 34.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.407 (below their season average of 0.511). Michigan State was lifted by Nick Ward, who put up 18 points and 13 rebounds.
The last time the Fighting Illini played, they lost big to the Wisconsin Badgers, 75-50. Wisconsin’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Illinois. The Badgers had a rate of 0.327 (above their season average of 0.224), while the Fighting Illini posted a mark of 0.053 (below their season average of 0.254). With nine points and 10 rebounds, Illinois’ Mark Alstork had a solid game.
Illinois might have difficulty scoring as they square off against one of the nation’s best defenses. Michigan State currently ranks ninth in defensive efficiency while the Fighting Illini rank 152nd in offensive efficiency. Also, the Spartans, who rank sixth in offensive rebounding percentage (37.8 percent), will battle against the Fighting Illini, who rank 253rd in defensive rebounding percentage (69.5 percent).
Michigan State heads into the game with records of 17-3 straight up (SU) and 12-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Spartans are involved, as 10 of their 18 games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Illinois owns records of 10-10 SU and 8-8 ATS. Unlike Michigan State, Fighting Illini games have a tendency to finish under the projected point total (68.8 percent).
After the Fighting Illini won the only contest against the Spartans last season, 73-70, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Fighting Illini’s 9.6 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Spartans, who had a mark of 20.4.
Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Michigan State is 3-4 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 2 overs.
Illinois is 4-3 ATS at home with 4 unders and 3 overs.
Michigan State ranks first in blocks per game (8.0) while Illinois ranks 190th (2.2).
The Fighting Illini rank 42nd in steals per game (7.5) while the Spartans rank 210th (4.5).
Michigan State ranks first in assists per game (21.3) while Illinois ranks 125th (14.1).
The Fighting Illini rank 31st in three pointers allowed per game (18.6) while the Spartans rank 154th (22.4).
Michigan State ranks third in rebounds per game (42.5) while Illinois ranks 101st (37.0).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Michigan State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Spartans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.2, down from 21.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Fighting Illini have scored an average of 69.2 points per game (8.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 79.8 points per game (7.8 above their season average).
