The undefeated (7) Michigan Wolverines get the biggest game in the state at home in the Big House when they play the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday evening. The in-state rivalry is scheduled to begin on Saturday, October 7th at 7:30 p.m. EST. The storied rivalry can be seen on ABC for your evening football entertainment. Coming into this game, the Wolverines are -10.5 point favorites to capture the victory. The contest’s over/under sits at a very low 40 points.
Although it hasn’t been pretty, the Wolverines sit undefeated at 4-0 and are coming off an impressive victory on the road at Purdue 28-10. The Michigan revamped defense has been as advertised in 2017, holding every one of their opponents to 17 points or less. Now, they will face a Spartan team that continues to struggle on the offensive side of the ball.
The Michigan State Spartans lived up to their 3.5 points favorite billing last week against the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Spartans also used their defense to hold the visiting Hawkeyes to 10 points on their way to a 17-10 win. Like Michigan, it certainly hasn’t been exciting to watch Michigan State play. Nevertheless, they are now 3-1 and in the thick of it in the BIG-10 race.
In last years game, the Wolverines exacted some revenge on the Spartans 32-23 on the road. It was a nice way to bounce back after the blocked punt debacle that the Spartans capitalized on in the final moments of their game the previous year. It’s no secret that these two schools don’t like each other and this game should reflect that this weekend.
Michigan State Spartans (3-1)
Well, the rebuilding process in Lansing looks like it is off to a good start in 2017. Still, the Spartans were 2-2 last season before the wheels fell off and they finished the year 3-9. If they can find a way to win this rivalry game, Michigan State will have a great chance to get back into a bowl game by season’s end.
Leading the Spartan’s offense is quarterback Brian Lewerke. Unlike Michigan State signal-callers from the past, Lewerke is a dual-threat athlete who uses his feet as well as his arms. So far this year, he has thrown the ball effectively totaling 963 yards with eight touchdowns and only two picks. He also has run the ball 38 times for a team-high 248 yards and two more touchdowns.
Running back L.J. Scott continues to struggle to put up any numbers of significance this year. In fact, his rushing outputs have been downright miserable. In all, Scott has toted the rock 58 times for only 214 yards and a touchdown. If the Spartans want to find themselves on the winning side of this game, Scott has to help Brian Lewerke in the running game.
A couple of Michigan State wideouts are starting to find their footing as the season trudges along. Felton Davis III and Darrell Stewart Jr. continue to improve, catching 38 balls for well over 400 yards and five scores. Davis III had a big week last week, catching nine passes for 114 yards and both of the Spartans touchdowns against Iowa.
Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 18 points and 248.3 yards per game. Linebacker Joe Bachie leads the Spartans with 34 tackles. Defensive end Chris Frey has 2.5 sacks and Tyson Smith has one pick. This week should be a stiff test for this unit as the Wolverines looked like they finally figured out some things on offense against the Boilermakers.
(7) Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
Head coach Jim Harbaugh will take wins any way he can get them. So far, that has been the case for the Michigan Wolverines. Thanks to some strong play from their young defense they have managed to stay in the top ten in the country and are undefeated. Unfortunately, The Ann Arbor boys have been anything but spectacular on offense.
Against Purdue, quarterback Wilton Speight went down to injury and backup John O’Korn filled in quite nicely. O’Korn took the reigns and threw for 270 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Wilton Speight is out once again with a back injury and it is unclear when he might be ready to go from here on out.
No matter who is starting under center, the Wolverines will let their running game do most of the talking. Three capable tailbacks take handoffs and make the most of their opportunities. Together, the trio has amassed over 700 yards and five trips to the promised land. Ty Issac leads this group with 57 carries for 356 yards and a score.
The passing game has been a work-in-progress heading into this game against the Spartans. No wide receiver really has any numbers to brag about and all perform equally when called upon to move the chains. Pass catcher Grant Perry leads this squad with 13 grabs for 163 yards and a touchdown.
Whether it’s John O’Korn or Wilson Speight at quarterback, one thing going for the Wolverines is a tremendous defense. That unit leads the country in yards per game allowed (203.1), ranks eighth against the pass (134) and third against the run (69).
I guess it really doesn’t matter how many starters Michigan lost coming into this year’s campaign. Linebacker Devin Bush leads the Michigan Wolverines with 33 tackles. Front seven standout Chase Winovich has 5.5 sacks, and safety Lavert Hill has one pick.
Prediction
Line setters have the Wolverines as a -10.5 point favorite at home for this grudge-match. With that in mind, I’d like to point out that four of the last six meetings have been decided by 14 points or less. Furthermore, the Spartans have snatched up victories in seven of the last nine games.
Then again, this a new year and there are plenty of different athletes on the field. One thing is for sure, Las Vegas doesn’t expect much scoring in this game. The 40 point total is truly a testament to that fact. Obviously, both the Spartans and the Wolverines sport good defenses so I don’t expect a shootout.
Still, I think that there may be some value in this over/under. Even though both clubs will do plenty of punting, turnovers and special teams often play a role when these two schools face off. Short fields and a few big plays and this game and this over 40 is reachable.
Because of that, and the fact that these two should keep it somewhat close, I’m suggesting to my readers to play the over 40. I don’t like the 10 points with the hook in this game anyways. Just sit back a cheer for Brian Lwereke to make some plays and the Wolverine offense to keep some momentum with John O’Korn under center. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Under is 5-2 in the Spartans last 7 games overall.
The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
The Over is 12-5 in the Wolverines last 17 conference games.
The Spartans are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
