The Michigan State Spartans are coming off their best win of the year, but it was a game in which the second half was played in a driving rainstorm. When a win occurs in bad weather, when a lot of the normal points of football competition don’t often apply, how much value does that lend to the Spartans and what they are trying to achieve as a team? The Spartans face an opponent led by a first-year coach which will be playing at home and at night. There are many different ways to think about this game. Which ones seem more relevant?
Details
Odds: Spartans -4
Date & Time: Saturday, October 14, 8 PM ET
Location: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast: Big Ten Network
Reasons To Bet On The Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans’ defense is getting the job done. Michigan State has won defensive slugfests in recent weeks against Iowa and Michigan. Mark Dantonio is preaching defense and toughness, and that’s exactly what he is getting from his team. Michigan State is minimizing its own mistakes and maximizing the number of mistakes it causes other teams to make. It’s not pretty, and Michigan State is not winning games by 20 points, but the Spartans have responded perfectly to their blowout loss at home against Notre Dame. The team has to feel good about where it is, confident in its game plan and in the way the coaches are guiding the players each week.
The other big reason to pick Michigan State is that Minnesota is a struggling team, having just lost back-to-back Big Ten games against Maryland and Purdue, which are not bad teams but are also not particularly good teams, either. Minnesota’s offense just doesn’t have the talent or the depth to become a very threatening team this year. First-year head coach P.J. Fleck loves to have a wide-open offense which can attack a defense from various angles, but he needs a few recruiting classes to build the program and the offense the way he wants to. Minnesota is in a transitional phase, and with that transition comes a lot of necessary growing pains while the new coach introduces his system and teaches his players how to learn in a different way. Minnesota could be very improved next year, but this year is a learning process which will involve plenty of pain. Michigan State should be able to smother the Gophers’ offense in this one.
Reasons To Bet On The Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Golden Gophers might not have a great offense, but Michigan State lacks a potent offense as well. The Spartans have scored at least 30 points only once this season, and they have not scored more than 18 points in three weeks. Michigan State did beat Michigan but needed five turnovers to win 14-10. If Minnesota can simply avoid turnovers, it will force Michigan State’s offense to make clutch plays, and that is no guarantee. Michigan State has been winning in one way this season – it has not been able to win shootouts or games in which the opposing team doesn’t make mistakes. Minnesota, with an efficient offensive game, can play ball control and frustrate the Spartans all night long.
Outlook
We’ve seen quite a bit of movement on this betting line since it opened up. We saw the Spartans pop up at -3 to start the week but the line has gone both ways since. The first moves saw it drop under the key number, down to -2.5, as bettors clearly liked the home dog. But we’ve seen it go the other way since and now the Spartans are up to -4. Clearly there are some split minds in terms of handicapping this contest.
For us, while we understand that the Michigan State offense is weak, but Minnesota does not have the skills or the experience and comfort zone to effectively thwart the Spartans and their style of play. Michigan State enjoys a favorable matchup here and should win. There is the potential of a letdown but we’re still banking on Sparty taking care of business in this spot.
Prediction: Spartans -4
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