Two Big-10 foes meet up at Ryan Field in Illinois to settle their differences when the (18) Michigan State Spartans play the Northwestern Wildcats. The game is slated to begin on Saturday, October 28th at 3:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN. As of this article, the Spartans are a slight -2.5 point favorite on the road and the contest’s total rests at 40.5.
The Michigan State Spartans enter this battle after an eventless 17-9 home victory over the Indiana Hoosiers. Quietly, Michigan State has climbed to 18th in the country and now sits at 6-1. Northwestern is heading into this game riding a two-game win streak. Last week, the Wildcats upended the Iowa Hawkeyes at home in overtime, 17-10. The Spartans have a commanding 38-14 advantage in the all-time series but it was the Wildcats taking a 54-40 road win in the last meeting on October 15, 2016.
(18) Michigan State Spartans (6-1)
The Michigan State Spartans muddled their way through three-quarters before coming on in the fourth quarter against Indiana. As a result, they put up 14 points in the final frame and came away with their sixth win. Now, the Spartans are one of three clubs in the Big-10 East with a perfect 4-0 record. Ohio State and Penn State are the other two and they play each other this weekend.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke and the Spartan offense was lethargic once again putting up only 274 yards of total offense. In all, Lewerke only complete 16 passes for 185 yards and a score. He also fumbled the ball on three occasions but the Hoosiers only recovered one of them. The dual-threat signal-caller has done well running the football but couldn’t even record a positive yard last Saturday.
LJ Scott has been handling most Michigan State’s rushing attack. He was the main weapon that the offense used to comeback against Indiana. The durable back toted the rock 22 times for 87 yards and a score in the victory. Altogether, Scott has carried the ball 105 times for 495 yards with five touchdowns. Brian Lewerke is second on the team with 313 yards and three more trips to pay-dirt.
Only two Michigan State wide receivers really do any damage against other school’s secondaries. Felton Davis III and Darrell Stewart Jr. have combined for 49 catches for almost 600 yards and six end zone appearances. Unfortunately, nobody else has stepped up for the Spartans which is why they sit 95th in the country in passing offense.
On defense, Michigan State has been outstanding in 2017. The front half has held opposing runners in check and the back half has shut down other team’s passing games. As a unit, they are holding opponents to only 261 total yards of offense which is good for fourth in the country. In fact, their run-stop and pass defense are both ranked in the top 10 in the nation. Also, the Spartans are tough in the red zone, yielding only 16.9 points a contest.
Northwestern Wildcats (4-3)
The Northwestern Wildcats won their second straight contest. With the victory over Iowa, they climbed over the .500 mark on the season. The Wildcats also improved to 2-2 in the Big-10 West Division, putting them in a tie for second with the Cornhuskers. This will be a crucial game for the Wildcats as both their overall record and their division records need to stay above the .500 mark.
Clayton Thorson has been struggling to find his footing under center this season. Last week was no different, as he completed 21 passes for only 195 yards with no touchdowns. On a positive note, he did manage to run for the winning score and not serve up an interception. For the year, Thorson has completed 60 percent of his throws for 1,688 yards with eight touchdowns and nine picks.
Like Michigan State, Northwestern’s main weapon come out of their backfield. Justin Jackson has been very reliable and continues to move the chains for the offense. Last weekend, he carried the pigskin 25 times for 95 yards. He did fail to score but kept the offense as balanced as he could throughout the game. All totaled, Jackson has rushed for just over 600 yards and five trips to the promised land. The multi-talented back also catches passes out of the running back position. This year, he has nabbed 26 balls for 167 yards and another score.
Four possession receivers pitch in to help out the passing game. All of them sit between 20 and 25 catches on the year. Sophomore receiver Ben Skowronek leads the team with 25 catches for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Really, Clayton Thorson and his passing offense aren’t that bad as they are ranked 43rd in the nation.
The big discrepancy between these two programs is the performance of their defenses. Unlike the Spartans, Northwestern struggles to stop the pass. Coming into this match-up, the Wildcats are 93rd in the country and giving up nearly 250 yards a game. Fortunately, their front seven has done much better against the run. The unit only relents to 121 yards a contest (25th). Teams are also scoring roughly 24 points on the Wildcats when they meet on the gridiron.
Prediction
Line setters have the Spartans as a 2.5 point road favorite because of the great play of their defense. Judging from the numbers that Northwestern has put up, that probably will be the case once again. The thing that scares me is that Michigan State has an anemic offense and it’s tough to win on the road when you can’t score points. Nevertheless, Sparty has been finding a way to win these close, low-scoring affairs. I just wouldn’t bet on it this weekend in Lincoln Land.
Oddsmakers also have this contest’s total at 40.5, which sounds about right to me. After writing this article, I’m starting to wonder how the heck they both will combine for 30. Michigan State can’t move the ball through the air and really aren’t that effective on the ground. Northwestern can find a few ways to get down the field while passing the ball but not against this defense. The 40.5 points is a number that I can work with here. Take whichever team you like to win this game 20-17 and make your money on the defenses. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.
The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The Under is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Under is 36-14-1 in the Wildcats last 51 home games.
Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Click for live odds on this or any other event at BetDSI Sportsbook.
