The Michigan Wolverines (12-3) travel to Purdue to play the No. 20-ranked Boilermakers (13-2) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. The game starts at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 7 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Boilermakers are hoping for a better outcome after their 70-63 loss to Iowa in their last game. A.J. Hammons had the best performance for the Boilermakers, finishing with 11 points, seven rebounds, and two assists. The Wolverines, meanwhile, are coming off a 79-56 win over Penn State in their last outing. Mark Donnal led the team in scoring by recording 16 points on 7-for-10 shooting.
Over the last five games, Hammons has really been playing well for the Boilermakers, averaging 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 0.8 assists, and 3.6 blocks. On the other side, the Wolverines have been led by Caris LeVert. He has been on fire, averaging 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 0.8 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers in the same time frame.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Purdue ranks third in the nation, allowing just 85.4 points per 100 possessions, while Michigan is 31st (93.7). Also, the sweet-shooting offense of the Wolverines ranks third in eFG% at 60.5%, while the Boilermakers are best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (39.1%).
Purdue is a seven-point favorite against Michigan and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is 135 points. The Boilermakers have gone 13-2 Straight Up (SU) and 8-3 Against The Spread (ATS). The Boilermakers are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throw percentage, shooting a superb .742 from the free throw line. The Boilermakers have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the fifth-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 43.7 per game, while the Wolverines rank 306th in the nation with 33.4 per game. Purdue is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38.
As for their opponent, the Wolverines have 12-3 SU and 9-4 ATS records. Michigan has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-2. The Wolverines are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking ninth in Division I at 1.69. The Wolverines are one of the top defensive teams on the road, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 67 points allowed per away game.
Purdue and Michigan will be facing off in their first head-to-head clash of the season. When they last met the Boilermakers were winners, but Michigan still leads the head-to-head record over their most recent games, 6-4 SU. On the other hand, Purdue leads the matchup ATS with a record of 6-3-1. Neither Purdue nor Michigan has led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers) over their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Purdue, O/U – Under
Notes
Purdue is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Purdue’s last 5 games.
Purdue is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Purdue’s last 7 games at home.
Purdue is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan.
Purdue is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Michigan.
Purdue averages 78.5 points per game this season. Michigan is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 60.9 points per game (ranked 12th).
Purdue scores just 81.6 points per home game (ranked 117th). Michigan ranks 26th in points allowed on the road, giving up 67.0 points.
In its last game, Michigan won by a margin of 23 points. Purdue is 8-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Michigan has an 8-1 record in blowouts.
The Purdue Boilermakers have a defensive rating of 85.4, third-best in the country. The Michigan Wolverines have a top-tier offense with an offensive rating of 120.4 (ranked 13th).
The Purdue Boilermakers average a field goal percentage of 46.3% this season. The Michigan Wolverines have split their games this season (2-2) when opponents have a FG% of 46.3% or greater.
The Purdue Boilermakers average 23.0 three point attempts per game, and the Michigan Wolverines attempt 25.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Purdue is 10-2 and Michigan is 10-3.
The ninth-ranked team in the category, Michigan has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69 this season. Purdue ranks 36th with an A/TO of 1.38.
Ranked fifth in the nation, Purdue averages 43.7 rebounds per game. Michigan ranks lower at 306th with 33.4 RPG.
The Purdue Boilermakers average 4.9 steals per game. The Michigan Wolverines are undefeated at 6-0 when they allow at least 4 steals.
