The 15th-ranked Michigan Wolverines claw their way into Pennsylvania to play the 2nd-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions in a rowdy BIG-10 match-up on Saturday. The game is scheduled to go down on Saturday, October 21st at 7:30 p.m. EST. The contest’s total came out on Sunday at 42.5 and now has risen to 45. Heading into this gridiron battle, the Nittany Lions are a -9.5 point home favorite. The conference showdown can be seen on ABC for your evening entertainment.
The Michigan Wolverines head into University Stadium on the heels of a 27-20 overtime victory over the Hoosiers in Indiana. In that game, the Wolverines were outscored 17-7 in the second half and needed extra time to secure the win. Now, they head to the Keystone State to try to win their fourth in a row against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions had the benefit of a bye week last Saturday after they clubbed the Northwestern Wildcats 31-7. Penn State is now 4-1 ATS and 6-0 straight up on the season. Furthermore, they also boast one of the nation’s best running backs and look to be playoff bound for the second straight year.
The Wolverines have a 13-7 advantage in the all-time series. Including, a 49-10 beatdown in the Big House in the most recent matchup on September 24, of 2016.
(15) Michigan Wolverines (5-1)
The Michigan Wolverines sit 5-1 but it sure hasn’t been pretty. They have benefited from playing a weaker schedule through their first six games. Nevertheless, that is all about to change this weekend when they duke it out with the nation’s number two Nittany Lions. If they hope to come away with a victory here, they better find better ways to move the chains that they have through their first six games.
Quarterback John O’Korn looked absolutely lost when he was out on the field last weekend. The back-up under center had some ridiculously lousy numbers. Against Indiana, he completed only half of his 20 throws for measly 58 yards. To make matters worse, O’Korn didn’t contribute anything to the scoreboard. Basically, he just took the snaps and handed the ball off to his backfield teammates.
Thank goodness for tailback Karan Higdon. If it wasn’t for him, the Wolverines would have looked like a Division II offense. Instead, Higdon answered the call with 25 carries for 200 yards and three touchdowns. With that being said, it was against one of the BIG-10’s worst rushing defenses. Conversely, Penn State sits 24th in the nation.
When the quarterback struggles so do the receiving corps. Unfortunately, neither of these two have been of much help for head coach Jim Harbaugh. Forget about balance, the Wolverines are too far from that at this point to even suggest it. Grant Perry is the only receiver who has more than15 catches. His 18 nabs for 224 yards and a score are tops on the team.
The Michigan defense is the only reason why they sit at 5-1 and that is a godsend considering how green they are. Even with all the new faces, the Wolverines continue to dominate opposing offenses. Also, one has to consider just how long they spend out on the field with their horrible offense. In all, Michigan is first in the country, allowing only 223 yards a game. They also are third in the FBS against the pass and sixth against the run. Altogether, they only give up 14 points to opposing schools.
(2) Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0)
The Penn State Nittany Lions look to improve to 7-0 on the year and remain one of the top national title contenders. The Nittany Lions also haven’t lost a home game since November of 2015. Coming into this BIG-10 affair, Penn State has had the luxury of getting two weeks to prepare. Unlike the Wolverines, the offense in Happy Valley is putting up just under 40 points a go.
Leading the charge for the Nittany Lions is running back Saquon Barkley. Against the Wildcats, Barkley was held in check for most of the first half. But like it is with any great tailback, the second half was all his. Overall, he scampered for 75 yards with two touchdowns. The Heisman hopeful does it all for head coach James Franklin. In 2017, Barkley has run for 649 yards on 102 carries with six scores. The dual-threat athlete also leads the team with 29 catches and 395 yards with two touchdowns. That’s not all, he returns kickoffs and has taken one of those to the house as well.
Quarterback Trace McSorley is having another great season leading the Penn State offense. The Virginia native has completed 67 percent of his throws for just under 1,600 yards with 13 touchdowns and only four picks. He also is second on the team in the rushing department. This season, he has scrambled for 178 yards and four trips to the promised land.
Besides Saquon Barkley, two wide receivers help matriculate the pigskin down the field on Saturdays. Together, the duo has produced 46 catches for almost 670 yards and five scores. The Penn State offense also sports one of the country’s best tight ends. Mike Gesicki has reeled in 22 balls for 176 yards and four more touchdowns. The 6’6, 260-pound mountain of a man is also the Nittany Lions best blocker.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions are not really that far behind the Michigan Wolverines. They also have a number one ranking in the nation and that’s in points allowed a game (9). The secondary is ninth in the FBS, holding quarterbacks to only 167.8 yards a contest. Running the ball against their front seven isn’t much easier as they sit 24th in the rankings at 117 yards a match.
Prediction
Oddsmakers have given the Nittany Lions a good chance to defend their home turf against Michigan. I mean, they are favored by almost ten points (-9.5) and I can kind of see why. Until actually writing this article, I guess I didn’t realize just how spotty the Wolverine’s offense is. That is just a recipe for disaster when you are going up against the best defense you’ve faced all season long. Furthermore, Penn State can score on anybody. Yeah, they might not light up the board against a talented Michigan defense, but how many points do they need?
Currently, the over/under sits at 45. It’s up a bit from 42.5 and that might be a gift. A 24-20 type of game happens quite frequently and that is enough to capture the under. This is easily the toughest game I have been asked to pick this week. So I’m going to go with my gut on this one. As crazy as it sounds, I’m still suggesting the play here is the under 45. I see more of a 24-17 game developing in this one. With that being said, I also like buying the Wolverines up to 10.5 and taking their defense to help cover that spread. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
The Over is 9-2 in the Wolverines last 11 road games.
The Nittany Lions are 13-1-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Nittany Lions are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Nittany Lions last 6 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
