Monday night brings us the last match-up of the English Premier League Round 33 that will be played at the Riverside between the Middlesbrough FC and Arsenal FC. Both teams are on a down-slide lately and the potential winner would stop their latest trend of under-performing. Also, this is a good opportunity to raise some easy funds and that’s the main reason we have prepared this analysis for you. Let’s take a closer look.
MIDDLESBROUGH FC vs. ARSENAL FC
3-Way: 1: Middlesbrough FC +570; X: +341 Draw; Arsenal FC -167
Spread +1: Middlesbrough FC -104 ; Arsenal FC +100
Total +2.5: Over -125; Under +125
MIDDLESBROUGH FC
The Middlesbrough FC is in a very tough position in the league table and the battle for survival is not looking good at the moment. The team ranks 19th with 24 points in 31 games and they are six points below the relegation line but they do have two matches less played than the 17th ranked Hull City (30 points) and the 18th ranked Swansea City (28 points). The only team they have the advantage over is the bottom ranked Sunderland who has collected only 21 points in 32 games.
The Smoggies are coming off from a 0:0 home draw with Burnley last week. They’ve failed to win in their last 14 matches including a winless streak in the last six home games. Most recent win in the league happened last year on December 17th, when they defeated Swansea City at the Riverside with 3:0. The team is 0-3-5 in the last eight games and they are 0-3-1 in the last four home games. Middlesbrough has not seen a lot of success against the Gunners in the recent history, recording their last win over Arsenal back in 2007 with the final score 2:1 at home. Since then, the two teams met 5 times in all competitions, with the Gunners winning twice and the game ending in a draw on three occasions.
Their season record at home is 3-5-7 with 12-17 goal difference (22-37 overall) and the team ranks 19th in the home league table with 14 of 45 possible points earned. 60% of Middlesbrough’s home games are under 2.5 goals and 87% of their home matches are under 3.5 goals in total. They score 0.80 and concede 1.13 goals at home this season and only one game in front of their own crowd was over 2.5 goals at half-time. Most common result at home is a 0:0 draw (occurred three times).
Alvaro Negredo tops the team in scoring this year with seven goals while Cristhian Stuani and Marten de Roon have four and three goals in their accounts. Negredo is also the team’s leading assists provider with four so far while Gaston Ramirez collected three. Ben Gibson and Adam Forshaw top the passing segment with 1494 and 1196 total passes. Goalkeepers Victor Valdes (28 games) and Brad Guzan (3 games) collected 90 saves and have 10 clean sheet games combined.
Calum Chambers (Foot), George Friend (Calf strain), Gaston Ramirez (Ankle injury), Fabio Da Silva (Concussion) and James Husband (Knock) are all expected to be out until at least April 17th, but it’s unknown if they are going to be available to coach Agnew on Monday.
ARSENAL FC
The Arsenal FC team is in thea biggest result crisis of the season right now. They rank seventh in the league table with 54 points in 30 games and the European Champions league spot looks pretty far. The only good thing is that they have at least one game less than any team that is in front of them, except Manchester United who has the same number of games played. If they don’t end the season in one of the first four spots, fans voices that are against the idea that Arsene Wenger should be the team’s head coach next year will get much louder and his departure will become more certain.
The Gunners are 2-1-5 in the last eight games and they’ve managed to lose four straight road games conceding three goals in each of those match-ups. The loss that was particularly hurtful was the one that occurred last week at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace, the team that is fighting for survival and the team that had only four wins in 15 home games prior to the last Round. On the bright side, Arsenal has scored in 87% of their away matches this season and their overall road record is 6-3-6 with 30-24 goal difference (61-39 overall).
Arsenal ranks sixth in the road league table with 21 of 45 possible points earned and the most common road results are 3:1 loss (occurred three times) and 4:1 win (occurred twice). The Gunners score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per match on the road this season and 80% of their away games are over 2.5 goals while 60% of those games are over 3.5 goals in total. 27% of their road matches are over 4.5 goals and 7% of their away games are over 2.5 goals at half-time.
Alexis Sanchez tops the team in scoring (18 goals), assisting (9) and shots on goal (102). Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud managed to score 10 and nine goals while Mesut Ozil and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain managed to collect six and five assists so far. Granit Xhaka and Ozil top the passing segment with 1700 and 1590 total passes. Goalies Petr Cech (27 appearances), Emilio Martinez (two appearances) and David Ospina (two appearances) collected 90 saves and they have nine games with clean sheets.
Spaniard Santi Cazorla (Plantaris injury) is expected to be out until at least July 1, 2017, while Lucas Perez (Thigh strain) has unspecified date of return and he is a major doubt for Monday game. David Ospina (Back injury) is expected to be out until at least April 26.
Everything but a win for both teams will be considered as a major setback in their respective goals of the season. The Boro’ would be one step closer to the Championship and the Gunners would be one step further from the Champions League spot so my guess is that the draw will be out of the question in this one. Also, the host has tendencies of low scoring games, especially at home, while Arsenal has troubles scoring on the road lately. However, both teams must play to score and open up their game in order to win, which is why I expect goals!!! My safe bet here will be to over 2.5 goals in total and Arsenal to win because I think that Middlesbrough is just not good enough team to pair even the underperforming Gunners team.
My pick: Arsenal to win (-167)
Total: Over 2.5 goals (-125)
