In the past, midterm elections didn’t generate a lot of buzz. However, the current supercharged political climate has made the 2018 midterm elections a hot topic across the nation. The average citizen is more interested in the outcome of this year’s midterm elections than any other midterm elections in recent memory.
The polarization of both parties during the administration of Donald Trump means that the outcome of these midterms will have a much larger effect on American politics than past elections. If Republicans were to retain both the House and the Senate it would be business as usual, but if Democrats were to win both chambers the betting odds for impeachment would drop and there would be a significant rollback of Republican reforms.
Online sportsbook BetDSI is offering midterm election betting odds on which party will win the House and the Senate. Below, I’ll break down some of these odds.
2018 House Odds
Democrats Retake the House -260
Republicans Retain the House +185
Conventional wisdom says that betting on the Democrats to win the House is a solid bet. The current president has sustained record levels of unpopularity, and that has historically meant voters will punish the party for it.
The advanced metrics back this position up too. At these odds, betting on the Democrats to retake the House is a great bet. As of Wednesday morning, FiveThirtyEight has the Democrats with an 80.5 percent chance to win control of the House. There has been a surge of Democratic support across the nation, as evidenced by Republicans losing support in every special election since Trump’s inauguration. Additionally, there has been a strong push among young people to register to vote, and we have seen that in swing states like Florida.
Many Republicans currently serving in the House have seen the writing on the wall and have decided to retire rather than potentially tarnish their legacy. This cycle, three times as many House Republicans have decided to retire than House Democrats, and that might be indicative of a broader shift.
2018 Senate Odds
Democrats Retake the Senate +235
Republicans Retain the Senate -335
It’s hard to deny there is currently a Blue Wave in terms of support for Democrats, but it’s still going to be difficult for them to take back the upper chamber of Congress. This year, only 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of the 65 seats not up for election, a whopping 42 are held by Republicans while just 23 are held by Democrats.
The model over at FiveThirtyEight says that 18 of the 35 seats are safe seats for Democrats, while the Republicans have four safe seats. That means Democrats need to win 10 of the 13 competitive races to wrest control of the Senate away from the Republicans.
That’s going to be very difficult to do. Of those 13 seats that are seen as swing seats, three are in deep red states (Texas, Tennessee, and Mississippi), and it will be hard for the Democrats to win those. Even though candidates like Ted Cruz are very unpopular, Texas votes so overwhelmingly Republican that it’s going to be hard for Democrats to break through.
If Republicans won those three states, it would mean that Democrats must sweep the board in order to win control of the Senate. A tie would give the Republicans the Senate by default because Mike Pence would hold the tiebreaking vote, and he is very unlikely to ever go against his party.
In addition to the general races for the Senate and House, BetDSI is offering betting odds on Senate seats for some states. The website has betting odds for Senate seats in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.
