In the third of a four-game series between the Chicago Cubs (75-43) and the Milwaukee Brewers (52-66) at Wrigley Field, Jon Lester (12-4, 2.93 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (6-12, 4.07 ERA) take the mound. The Cubs won the last game 4-1, and Chicago leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 8:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 17 and will air on CSCh and FSWI.
In his last start, Lester pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out six and walking one in a 4-3 victory over the Cardinals. Kris Bryant (.290, 91 Rs, 28 HRs, 73 RBIs, 8 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one RBI. The Brewers were unsuccessful the last time Nelson pitched. He tossed 5.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 7-4 loss to the Reds. Chris Carter (.219, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 66 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday.
Chicago is a considerable -265 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Cubs are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they’re the favorite (69-35), their overall money line (-94) is less impressive. They have impressive records of 29-14 as the favorite and 31-16 SU within their division. The Cubs have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the NL with an average of 4.1 walks per game. Transitioning to the Chicago defense and pitching staff, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Cubs, who allow an NL-low 3.4 runs per game. The Cubs lead the league in WHIP at 1.111. An area where the Cubs are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average 8.8 K’s per game.
Across the field, the Brewers have a record of 33-48 when they are the underdog and are -666 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 17-26 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 13-21 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.3 runs per game, above their 4.1 season average. Milwaukee is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 131 stolen bases.
The Cubs had the upper hand against the Brewers in their previous 10 games this season, earning a 7-3 record. This game will feature Nelson (RHP) on the mound against the Cubs, who have a 48-32 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the left-hander Lester. They sport a 22-14 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
When leading after seven innings, Chicago is 40-19, while Milwaukee is 21-29.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Brewers are going to have to step it up if they want to win this matchup. The Cubs have a 31-2 record in games where opponents scored one run or less.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 8-55. The Cubs have a 7-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the league at 19th when it comes to home runs, hitting 130 this season. Chicago ranks in the top half with 145.
Ranking 12th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.21 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.66.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.731). Chicago ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .776.
The Brewers are 32-49 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cubs are 39-35 when they allow at least one homer.
