Matt Garza (2-4, 4.58 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 5.61 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (10-21) and the Chicago Cubs (15-14) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 12-4 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 10 and can be seen on WGN and FSN-WI.
Garza pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking three in an 8-2 defeat to the Dodgers. Ryan Braun (.248, 19 Rs, 6 HRs, 16 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with three runs. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA against the Brewers in his career. He takes on a below-average Milwaukee offense that’s batting just .229. Anthony Rizzo (.327, 23 Rs, 6 HRs, 17 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Milwaukee is a -118 favorite against Chicago and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -1,134 and have shown a weak performance as a favorite this season with a record of 2-9. Milwaukee has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Brewers, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per home game with 8.7.
In games where it is the underdog, Chicago has a 8-6 record and an overall money line of +26. They are 6-5 as the underdog against teams in their division, and 12-10 SU. Offensively, they average five runs per game on the road, which is the best in the NL. The Cubs are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 9.4 hits per road game. The Cubs are an excellent base stealing team with 29 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB. The Cubs allow 4.3 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.4 runs per game during that span. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the second-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.3 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.6 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Brewers lead the season series, 3-2. The Brewers have a bad 4-12 record at home (8-17 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Hendricks takes the mound. Garza (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 13-10 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
Chicago recorded at least two errors for the ninth time this season.
When the Cubs play into extra innings, they have a 4-0 record. The Brewers are 0-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Cubs managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are heading in with a 2-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 6-2. The Cubs have a 9-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 22nd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 116 this season. Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 125.
Ranking 23rd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 74 this season. Chicago ranks in the top half at 12th with 98.
The Brewers are 9-7 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cubs are 11-4 when they hit at least one homer.
