The Milwaukee Brewers will head east to face their division rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising the matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Vegas is listing Pittsburgh (-120) as the favorite over Milwaukee (+110). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for even money (+100) or the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -190 for the Brewers +1.5 runs and +165 for the Pirates -1.5.
The Brewers have gone 55-38 SU this year and are 50-42 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 16.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.1 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 43-49 SU and 41-50 ATS. They’ve lost 10.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Pittsburgh games have a 43-41-7 over/under record so far in 2018. Milwaukee has been a good under bet with a total record of 39-50-3.
The left-handed Wade Miley will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. Miley is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and four strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 13.50 ERA and four strikeouts across 2.2 innings).
The Pirates are handing the ball to righty Jameson Taillon (5-7, 4.05 ERA), who’s got 93 strikeouts and 28 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.23. Taillon is 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA across two starts against Milwaukee this year.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.79 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.10, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
Brewers hitters have slashed .244/.317/.411 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Milwaukee’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who have combined to launch 19 home runs. Yelich is hitting .290/.362/.461 with 11 home runs, 41 RBIs, 58 runs and 12 steals. Cain (.299/.402/.439) is up to eight homers, 27 RBIs, 50 runs and 17 stolen bases.
For the home team, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 4.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 34 games against divisional foes, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.32 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.25.
Pittsburgh’s hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .241/.293/.364 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte have led the Pirates’ offense this year. Dickerson is slashing .309/.344/.463 with six home runs, 35 RBIs and 37 runs scored, while Marte’s line is .282/.334/.468 with 11 homers, 40 RBIs, 48 runs and 23 stolen bases.
The Brewers have gained 17.3 units and are 42-31 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 28 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 8.3 units and are 9-14 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, compared to eight that went under the total.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – UNDER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
The Pirates have won three of their last four games SU.
Pittsburgh has recorded 20.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.6 over its last five.
The Brewers have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit nine over their last 10.
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