Offense meets defense when the Milwaukee Bucks (9-3) visit Denver to take on the Nuggets (9-3). The game can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 11, 2018.
Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 220 points.
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Bucks’ last game, they were topped by the Los Angeles Clippers, 128-126, but they were able to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (254) came in over the O/U total of 242.5. Los Angeles was successful at getting and making free throws. The Clippers made 22 of their 27 free throws (81.5 percent), while the Bucks were just 16-23 (69.6 percent). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
The Nuggets lost a tough one against the Brooklyn Nets in their last contest, 112-110, despite being 8.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (222) came in over the projected point total of 215. Brooklyn’s 7.0 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Denver, who had a mark of 10.5. The Nets’ mark was better than their season average of 13.0. With 37 points on 14-for-22 shooting, Nikola Jokic was the top scorer from either team.
After the Nuggets won both meetings against the Bucks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Denver won 128-125. Denver made good use of their 46 trips to the charity stripe, making 37 of them (80.4 percent). Milwaukee, on the other hand, was 23-27 (85.2 percent).
Milwaukee holds records of 9-3 straight up (SU) and 7-4 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Bucks are playing, as eight of their 11 contests have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS. Contrary to Milwaukee, games featuring the Nuggets have typically finished under the total (66.7 percent).
Points could be at a premium as a pair of the league’s top defenses face off. Denver currently ranks third in defensive efficiency (102.4) and Milwaukee is second (101.6). It will also be a battle of contrasting paces as the aggressively-paced Bucks rank third in possessions per game, while the more methodical Nuggets rank 21st.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS on the road with 3 overs and 2 unders.
At home, Denver is 5-2 ATS with 4 unders and 3 overs.
Milwaukee is 2-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 5-1.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Nuggets are 9-2 and the Bucks are 9-3.
Denver ranks sixth in three pointers allowed per game (29.0) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (37.2).
The Bucks rank fourth in blocks per game (6.3) while the Nuggets rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (6.3).
Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (16.9) while Milwaukee ranks 15th (13.5).
The Bucks rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.3) while the Nuggets rank 13th (48.2).
Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (40.7) while Milwaukee ranks 12th (45.4).
The Bucks rank second in assists per game (27.3) while the Nuggets rank 12th (24.3).
Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while Denver ranks 12th (16.6).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Nuggets rank 10th (12.4).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 12.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 97.4 points per game (4.7 below their season average).
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