The New York Knicks (28-51) clash against the Milwaukee Bucks (42-37) at Madison Square Garden. The game can be seen on MSG Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 7, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 219 points with Milwaukee set as a 9.5-point favorite.
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks ATS Prediction
In the Bucks’ last outing, they were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets, 119-111. Brooklyn’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Milwaukee. The Nets had a rate of 0.673 (above their season average of 0.510), while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.468 (below their season average of 0.534). Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo had a good performance, contributing 19 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
The Knicks dismantled the Miami Heat in their last game, 122-98. The Knicks held the Heat to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below their season average of 21.4) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.607 (above their season average of 0.508). Damyean Dotson was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points on 12-for-21 shooting.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of New York. New York ranks 22nd in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.3 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Milwaukee forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (15.0 percent). Additionally, the Bucks are among the league’s best at getting to the line, ranking fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.223). The Knicks, meanhwile, rank 23rd in opponents’ FTA rate (0.208).
Milwaukee holds records of 42-37 straight up (SU) and 33-41-5 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Bucks tend to go over the projected point total (55.7 percent).
Meanwhile, New York is 28-51 SU and 36-42 ATS. Of the Knicks’ 78 games with betting action, 38 have finished over the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Eric Bledsoe (24.4 points, 5.6 assists and 2.0 steals) has been great for the Bucks while Trey Burke (22.4 points, 8.0 assists and 1.4 steals) has contributed greatly to the Knicks.
The Bucks have won all three games against the Knicks this season, including an eight-point victory the last time these teams met. Milwaukee was unable to cover as a 10-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 232 points, which was 19 points above the projected point total of 213 points. Milwaukee did a great job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (30-39; 76.9 percent). New York, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (9.6 vs. 13.4). Antetokounmpo put up a double-double in the victory with 28 points and 10 rebounds.
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Milwaukee is 21-16-2 ATS with 22 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
New York is 20-18 ATS at home with 20 unders and 18 overs.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, New York is 14-4 and Milwaukee is 16-5.
The Bucks are 36-20 when they reach the century mark, while the Knicks are 27-28.
Milwaukee ranks third in steals per game (8.8) while New York ranks 26th (6.8).
The Bucks rank second in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while the Knicks rank 23rd (15.2).
Milwaukee ranks sixth in fast break points per game (14.6) while New York ranks 27th (8.5).
The Knicks rank eighth in second chance points per game (13.4) while the Bucks rank 28th (10.4).
New York ranks 12th in rebounds per game (44.2) while Milwaukee ranks last (39.5).
The Knicks rank ninth in points in the paint per game (46.5) while the Bucks rank 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while New York ranks 14th (4.7).
The Bucks rank 13th in assists per game (23.1) while the Knicks rank 21st in assists allowed per game (23.9).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. Milwaukee is 25th in the league with 24.7 three pointers per game while New York is 29th with 23.2 threes per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
New York is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Bucks have outscored opponents by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Milwaukee has lost by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Knicks have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (2.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average).
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