The Miami Heat welcome the Milwaukee Bucks to AmericanAirlines Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 19 and can be seen on SUN and FWi.
The Heat are expecting a better outcome after their 99-74 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Despite the loss, Hassan Whiteside earned his 16th double-double this season with 14 points and 11 rebounds. The Bucks, meanwhile, are coming off a 105-92 win against the Hornets on Saturday. Khris Middleton was the game’s top scorer, accounting for 24 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greg Monroe have upped their production over the last five games for the Bucks. Antetokounmpo has averaged 19.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks during that stretch, while Monroe has put up 20.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks.
The Heat are a six-point favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 195 points. The Heat have gone 23-18 Straight Up (SU) and 20-20-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 11-12 SU and 10-13 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Miami’s stingy defense. The Heat are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 95.5 points per game. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Heat, who lead the league in blocks per game with 6.9. Miami will look to take advantage of the Bucks and their propensity to foul. Milwaukee ranks 29th in the league in fouls, averaging 23.0 per game.
As for their opponent, the Bucks have 18-25 SU and 22-20-1 ATS records. Against the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is 12-15 SU and 14-13 ATS. Milwaukee is the fourth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.8 per game.
The conference foes will be squaring off for the first time this season. In their previous head-to-head meeting, Milwaukee came out on top, but the win was not enough to overtake Miami in the most recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 4-6 SU over the last 10 meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, ATS Winner – Mil, O/U – Under
Notes
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games at home.
Miami is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home.
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee.
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Milwaukee.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee.
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee ranks 24th in points per game with 98.3, while Miami ranks second in points allowed with an average of 95.5 given up.
Milwaukee puts up an average of 96.3 points per away game (ranked 24th), while Miami gives up 95.7 points per home game (ranked third).
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 19-9 on the season. When the Bucks score fewer than 100, they are a subpar 7-17.
Miami is a losing 4-9 when it allows 100 or more points. Milwaukee has an 11-8 record when it reaches the century mark.
The Bucks have a defensive rating of 107.0 (ranked 28th). The Heat rank 16th for their offensive rating of 103.0.
The Milwaukee Bucks average 96.3 possessions per game and 1.021 points per possession. The Miami Heat earn fewer possessions with 93.6, but they score more points with 1.030.
The Miami Heat average an effective field goal percentage of 50.2% this season. The Milwaukee Bucks have a subpar record of 1-20 when opponents have an EFF% of 50.2% or greater.
The Miami Heat attempt 19.0 three pointers per game this season, while the Milwaukee Bucks attempt 15.0 per game. When they register 25 or more three point attempts in a game, Miami has a losing record at 1-3 while Milwaukee is winless (0-3).
The Miami Heat rank 18th with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.51. The Milwaukee Bucks have a higher A/TO (1.60), ranking 13th.
The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with just 41.2 per game. Ranked 18th, the Miami Heat average 43.2 rebounds.
Miami is ranked seventh in defensive rebounds, while Milwaukee ranks 13th in offensive rebounds.
Milwaukee is among the best in forcing turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.3% (ranked seventh). Miami has a 6-9 record SU when its TOV% reaches 15.3% or greater.
