The Milwaukee Bucks are heading to Dallas to play the 2-13 Mavericks, hoping to extend their invincibility since trading for Eric Bledsoe. The host are playing two nights in a row and will have to fight fatigue and poor morale to give themselves a chance on Saturday.
Bucks at Mavericks
Spread: Bucks -7.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 205 points (-110)
The Bucks win fourth in a row while working in the new lineup
With the Bucks entering the clutch all tied up with their division rivals from Detroit, Eric Bledsoe saw and seized the opportunity to endear himself to the home fan base, scoring 8 points in the final quarter, including four in the final minute, to help his team win fourth game in a row, 99-95.
Neither team played their best ball. Prior to the late game heroics, Bledsoe scored just 6 points in the first three quarters (0 for 6 start in a scoreless first half), blending in with the others in an up and down performance. They were slow out of the gate, not scoring until it was 0-8. Teams were tied at the half despite Pistons shooting just 33 percent as the Bucks defense traded of the inside for more space given to the outside shooters, and the Pistons made them pay by hitting 8 treys in the first 24 minutes. Milwaukee made sure every Pistons shot attempt inside the arc was as tough as possible. They utilized their length and athleticism to collect 16 blocks and alter numerous other shots. Defending three-pointers, though, was a different story. Milwaukee’s inability to do that made things interesting. Detroit used a fourth-quarter, three-point barrage to erase the 13-point lead the Bucks took into the period. The Bucks survived by better execution, but it was close for comfort and a proof that they still aren’t on the level they can play. Statistically, they were solid. The Bucks shot 48.7 percent from the field behind their top scoring duo – Antetokounmpo was 8-of-16 for 21 points, and Middleton scored 27 points on 12-of-21 FGs. The bench was cut short with a few injuries and is going to be a stumbling stone going forward even when healthy.
Mirza Teletovic and Matthew Dellavedova were out for the Bucks with minor knee injuries, and they are questionable to play in Dallas as well. The Bucks had to call up both of their G-League stashed players, but neither came into play in an important game against the Pistons. They could be featured against the Mavericks, but it’s not very likely – rather, the Bucks will shorten the rotation once again.
Place: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Date/Time: Saturday, November 18th, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSW, FSN-N
Mavericks put in a fight against the Spurs, but come up short again
The Mavericks have started the new losing streak with three consecutive losses last week, just after they barely managed to make an end to the previous one. Despite a season-best 27 points from the Mavs’ rookie point guard Smith, the San Antonio Spurs held on for a 97-91 win Tuesday night at American Airlines Center. It’s a sign of future, not the present, and many are wondering if the Mavericks would be better throwing the towel in early.
Going into this season, we figured the Mavs would go lotto without the awkwardness of fake pratfalls by playing DSJ and Noel max minutes. While Smith is getting much attention and deservedly so, Noel hasn’t been featured as frequently, and it’s hurting both the Mavs and his development. San Antonio was a typical example of Carlisle’s short leash for Noel – he played just a couple of minutes, set a bad screen for an offensive foul, and he was done for the night. This is not how tanking teams think. On the other side, the game they are showing us resembles only bad teams. Nowitzki is chasing offensive records and has been acting like a basketball junkie, refusing to make way for the young. Smith, with all of the progress he’s making (three 20+ games in the past week), is playing by himself too often. Even at the end of the Spurs game, he was picked off and then blocked while driving into traffic. As a team, the Mavericks simply dribble too much. They’ve done a solid job defensively, holding the Spurs to just 6 made threes and 44 percent shooting, but have managed to hit only 40.7 percent themselves, with Matthews are Barnes going 9-of-27 between the two.
The Mavericks played 11 times in the first 18 days of the season and Nowitzki admits that he should have sat a few out. On top of that, he reported a swelling on his knees, so I’d bet he sits out the games against the Bucks as the Mavericks play tonight as well.
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks Game Trends & Prediction
Four point win in the last game was not enough to cover, so the Bucks fell to 6-6-2 against the spread this season. They are actually losing by a half-a-point on average, so it’s a good record to have. They split the total points outcome on their games, going 7-7 overall, but are 4-2 when away from home. Five of the last six games failed to reach the set total points line when Bucks played.
Prior to the tonight’s game against the Wolves, the Mavericks were 4-11 against the spread overall, and just 2-6 at home. They’ve covered the last game, by just 0.5-points, and it was just the second time in the last 9 games that they’ve done so. However, despite the terrible record, they’ve had many games where they’ve been beaten by a margin just a few points of the set spread.
Admi-Rank: The Bucks are peaking with the winning streak, but still have a lot more potential than they are presenting. The Mavericks have already been forgotten, but this team keeps on playing games almost on par with the opposition. From here, it’s make or break for them.
I admit that I’m holding the Mavericks higher than the general public is, and it didn’t pay off. But it’s not the stubbornness – Dallas had a tough schedule, very unlucky in more games than not and their record doesn’t do them justice. Obviously, they have apparent holes in their game, and are less athletic and less talented than the Bucks. Back-to-back is also a reason for concern (but not about resting Dirk, which would be a positive thing for the Mavs).
Dallas has been set as a 7.5 home underdog in this encounter early on, without any intelligence on what’s going to happen tonight against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Of course, I’m not going to play the injury risks, so I’m going to wait for after the game to make sure I’m getting the price within known settings, but I’m obviously going after the home side. This price is ridiculous, and hopefully the Mavericks will continue to play for the best result they can achieve. The total is at 205, a fair line at the moment, so I don’t see any market moves or any development resulting in high enough of a value to have any bet there.
My Pick: Dallas +7.5 (-110)
Total: (no wager on the total points market)
