The Washington Wizards (25-18) square off against the Milwaukee Bucks (22-20) at Capital One Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 2 p.m. ET on Monday, January 15, 2018.
Washington is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 214 points.
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards Betting Prediction
The Bucks are hoping for a better outcome after their 97-79 loss to the Miami Heat in their last outing. Miami’s 0.533 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Milwaukee, who had a mark of 0.342. The Heat’s mark was above their season average of 0.525, while the Bucks’ was below their season average of 0.538. Giannis Antetokounmpo was Milwaukee’s leading scorer with 22 points on 6-for-12 shooting.
In the Wizards’ last game, they beat the Brooklyn Nets, 119-113. Washington’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Brooklyn. The Wizards had a rate of 0.548 (above their season average of 0.521), while the Nets posted a mark of 0.485. With 23 points and 16 assists, John Wall had a solid game for Washington.
The physical Milwaukee offense might be getting to the free throw line a lot in this meeting. The Bucks currently rank sixth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.222, while Washington ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.212).
Milwaukee heads into the game with records of 22-20 straight up (SU) and 18-18-5 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Bucks are involved, as 24 of their 41 games have gone over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Washington is 25-18 SU and 19-24 ATS. Unlike Milwaukee, games involving the Wizards have a tendency to finish under the projected point total (55.8 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Malcolm Brogdon (14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists) has been stellar for the Bucks while Wall (26.2 points, 10.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Wizards.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Bucks won the most recent matchup 110-103, covering as 4-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 213 points, hitting the projected point total. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 10.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.313 vs. 0.269). Antetokounmpo put up a double-double in the victory with 34 points and 12 rebounds.
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Wizards, ATS Winner – Wizards, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Milwaukee is 10-7-2 ATS on the road with 12 overs, 6 unders and 1 push.
Washington is 8-15 ATS at home with 12 overs, 9 unders and 2 pushes.
Washington is 13-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 8-3.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Bucks are 18-11 and the Wizards are 22-9.
Washington ranks 11th in second chance points per game (12.7) while Milwaukee ranks 28th (9.7).
The Bucks rank fifth in three pointers allowed per game (26.3) while the Wizards rank 20th (29.5).
Washington ranks 16th in rebounds per game (43.3) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (38.5).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (8.1) while the Wizards rank 12th (11.0).
Milwaukee ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (47.6) while Washington ranks 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.2).
The Bucks rank third in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while the Wizards rank 11th (4.6).
Washington averages 23.1 assists per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Milwaukee ranks 14th in assists allowed per game (22.5).
The Bucks average 17.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Wizards rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
Washington is 0-5 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.2, up from 1.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Wizards have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (5.1 above their season average).
