A couple of schools that prefer to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach P.J. Fleck and the Minnesota Golden Gophers (+30) are set to face off against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on FS1 and kickoff for this pivotal Big 10 matchup is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
Ohio State has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 30 points to Minnesota. If the Buckeyes get down early it would create a reasonable in-game betting opportunity. The over/under for this matchup has not been determined yet.
The Golden Gophers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.0 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-2. The Buckeyes are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-2-1 ATS and have an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Golden Gophers are 3-2 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Buckeyes are 6-0 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other last year.
The Gophers dropped one to Iowa 48-31 in a thumping where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as Zack Annexstad completed only 17 passes on 33 attempts for 218 yards, three scores and three interceptions. Mohamed Ibrahim (62 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Rashod Bateman (seven receptions, 65 yards, two TDs) and Tyler Johnson (six catches, 107 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Ohio State just picked up a 49-26 win over Indiana. Dwayne Haskins completed 33-of-44 passes for 455 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. J.K. Dobbins (82 yards on 26 rush attempts, one TD) and Mike Weber (70 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game as Parris Campbell (nine receptions, 142 yards, two TDs) and Johnnie Dixon (five catches, 73 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the win.
Minnesota’s run the ball on 57.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ohio State has an overall rush percentage of 53.3 percent. The Golden Gophers have rushed for 145 yards/game (including 90 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have six scores on the ground this year. The Buckeyes are logging 201 rushing yards per game (166 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Buckeyes ought to hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their backfield has logged 4.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Golden Gophers have rushed for 3.5 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Gophers offense has tallied 196 yards/contest through the air overall (202 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Buckeyes have recorded a superb 365 pass yards per game (359.7 in the Big 10) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Minnesota appears to have an edge in both defensive phases. The team has let opponents run for an average of 127 yards and pass for 197 yards per game. The Ohio State D has given up 222.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gophers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.94 to opponents, while the Buckeyes have given up a 5.47 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Annexstad is up to 755 yards this year, and has completed 54 percent of his 112 attempts with seven scores through the air and three interceptions. He’s got a 5.80 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.39 over the last two outings.
Mohamed Ibrahim (163 rushing yards this season), Rashod Bateman (189 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Chris Autman-Bell (150 receiving yards) have each played big roles lately.
On the other sideline, Dwayne Haskins has completed 120-of-159 passes for 1,649 yards, 22 TDs and three INTs. Haskins’ ANY/A sits at 11.88 for the season and 8.94 across his last two games.
We’re expecting the Buckeyes to control the game’s pace by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with WR Parris Campbell (441 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs this season), J.K. Dobbins (405 rush yards, three rush TDs, 64 receiving yards) and Mike Weber (369 rush yards, three rush TDs, one TD) have really been focal points in the Buckeyes’ recent offensive gameplans.
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NCAA Tip: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Ohio State D has notched 22 sacks on the year while Minnesota has just eight.
The Ohio State offense has lost two fumbles in 2018 while the Minnesota offense has lost four.
The Golden Gophers offense has recorded one pass play of 40+ yards, while the Buckeyes have put up eight such plays.
The Minnesota defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ohio State has given up four such plays.
The Minnesota offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Ohio State has created eight such runs.
The Golden Gophers defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have given up eight such runs.
Ohio State was favored by 28 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 64.5. The over cashed and Ohio State failed to cover in the team’s 49-26 victory over Indiana.
In its last three games, Ohio State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Minnesota was the underdog by 7 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 41.5. The over cashed and Minnesota was not able to cover in the 48-31 defeat to Iowa.
As a team, Minnesota has rushed for 2.59130434782609 yards per attempt over its last three outings and 2.5 over its last two.
Ohio State has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
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