The Atlanta Hawks (14-35) meet the Minnesota Timberwolves (32-20) at Philips Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 29, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Minnesota opened as a 6-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 215.5 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks Betting Prediction
The Timberwolves come in on a high note after defeating the Brooklyn Nets in their last contest, 111-97. The Timberwolves had a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 5.3 (better than their season average of 11.0), while the Nets had a free throw rate of 0.146 (below their season average of 0.210). Minnesota rallied around Karl-Anthony Towns, who finished with 16 points and 19 rebounds.
The last time the Hawks played, they lost big to the Washington Wizards, 129-104. Washington’s 0.682 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Atlanta, who had a rate of 0.494. The Wizards’ mark was above their season average of 0.520. Atlanta’s Tyler Dorsey had a good game, leading the team in scoring with 14 points on 3-for-6 shooting.
It could be a sloppy game for the Atlanta offense. Atlanta ranks 28th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.1 percent), while the pesky defense of Minnesota forces the second-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7 percent). Moreover, the third-ranked offense of the Timberwolves (offensive efficiency of 111.6) will face off against the 26th-ranked defense of the Hawks (defensive efficiency of 108.8).
Minnesota comes into the game with records of 32-20 straight up (SU) and 25-24-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Timberwolves games, with 27 overs compared to 24 unders.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is 14-35 SU and 25-22-2 ATS. Unlike Minnesota, just over half of Hawks games have finished under the projected point total.
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 23.8 points over the last five games for Minnesota.
After the Timberwolves won both meetings against the Hawks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent contest, Minnesota won 104-90. The Timberwolves had a better turnover percentage (13.5 vs. 17.4) and had a better free throw rate (0.183 vs. 0.145).
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 12-12-2 ATS with 14 overs and 12 unders.
At home, Atlanta is 13-12 ATS with 12 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Atlanta is 7-3 and Minnesota is 15-4.
When reaching 100 points, the Hawks are 13-20 and the Timberwolves are 30-11.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Atlanta ranks 25th (8.5).
The Timberwolves average 14.6 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the league. The Hawks rank 24th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
Minnesota ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Atlanta ranks 26th (40.7).
The Hawks rank fifth in assists per game (23.7) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.1).
Minnesota ranks 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while Atlanta ranks 27th (5.4).
The Hawks rank 12th in three pointers attempted per game (29.5) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (22.3).
Minnesota averages 18.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while the Hawks rank 19th (43.7).
Atlanta ranks 21st in fast break points per game (9.8) while Minnesota ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.2).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 3.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 101.6 points per game (1.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (4.0 above their season average).
