The Dallas Mavericks (0-1) welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1) to American Airlines Center for their home opener. The game can be seen on Fox Sports North Plus at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 20, 2018.
Minnesota is a 2.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last contest, they covered the 2.5-point spread against the Cleveland Cavaliers, 131-123. The game’s total points (254) came in well over the O/U total of 212. The Timberwolves had a much better free throw rate (0.379 vs. 0.269) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.563 vs. 0.527). Minnesota rallied around Jimmy Butler, who was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 10-for-12 shooting.
The Mavericks were blown out by the Phoenix Suns in their last outing, 121-100, despite being 2.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (221) were over the projected point total of 212.5. Phoenix’s 0.660 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.489. Dallas’ DeAndre Jordan put up 11 points and 12 rebounds in the contest.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Dallas ranks 26th in possessions per game (97.7) and Minnesota is 22nd (98.2) dating back to the 2017-18 season.
The Timberwolves are 48-36 straight up (SU) since last season, but are just 37-46 against the spread (ATS). Minnesota games have had a tendency to go over the projected point total since last season (53.0 percent).
Meanwhile, the Mavericks, are 24-59 SU and 43-39-1 ATS since last season. Dallas’ games have finished under the projected point total 56.6 percent of the time over that same period.
The Timberwolves won all four games against the Mavericks last season. In the last matchup, Minnesota won 93-92. Making free throws was one of Minnesota’s biggest advantages. They were 15-17 (88.2 percent), while the Mavericks were just 5-7 (71.4 percent).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Dallas is 16-13 when they allow below 100 points, while Minnesota is 19-4.
The Timberwolves are 46-26 when they reach the century mark, while the Mavericks are 18-29.
Dallas ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (32.8) while Minnesota ranks last (22.4).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while the Mavericks rank last (39.0).
Minnesota ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.7).
The Timberwolves rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while the Mavericks rank 28th (14.6).
Minnesota ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (10.4).
The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while the Mavericks rank eighth (7.2).
Minnesota ranks 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.6) while Dallas ranks 26th (14.3).
The Timberwolves rank 24th in blocks per game (4.2) while the Mavericks rank 29th (3.8).
Dallas averages 22.7 assists per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (23.8).
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