The Denver Nuggets (43-35) will try to continue their five-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves (44-34) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 5, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Denver opened as a 5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 226.5 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last outing, they were thoroughly outplayed by the Utah Jazz, 121-97. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Utah’s biggest advantages. They had 25 free throw attempts, while Minnesota had just 14. Andrew Wiggins was the top scorer from either team with 23 points on 10-for-22 shooting.
The Nuggets edged the Indiana Pacers in their last game, 107-104. Denver won the rebounding battle. The Nuggets had 13 offensive rebounds and 49 total rebounds, while the Pacers had six and 35, respectively. With 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, Will Barton had a good game for Denver.
It could be a mistake-prone game for the Denver offense. Denver ranks 24th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.6 percent), while the disruptive defense of Minnesota forces the fifth-most turnovers in the league (14.7 percent). Moreover, the Timberwolves rank fourth in offensive efficiency (111.6), while the Nuggets rank 27th in defensive efficiency (109.6).
Minnesota heads into the contest with records of 44-34 straight up (SU) and 34-41-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Timberwolves are involved, as 44 of their 78 games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 43-35 SU and 35-40-3 ATS. Games featuring the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish over the total (51.3 percent).
Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap have played well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 25.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.6 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Millsap has recorded 20.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists a game during that span.
The Timberwolves have won both games against the Nuggets this season, escaping with a narrow three-point victory in their last matchup. Minnesota was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 253 points, which was 41.5 points above the projected point total of 211.5 points. The Timberwolves’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Nuggets. Minnesota had a rate of 5.5, while Denver posted a mark of 7.9. Jimmy Butler was the game’s top overall scorer with 39 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 15-22-2 ATS with 21 overs and 18 unders.
At home, Denver is 19-19-1 ATS with 20 overs and 19 unders.
Denver is 13-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Minnesota is 17-4.
When reaching 100 points, the Timberwolves are 41-22 and the Nuggets are 37-25.
Denver ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while Minnesota ranks last (22.4).
The Timberwolves rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while the Nuggets rank 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
Minnesota ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.9) while Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.1).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points allowed per game (10.8) while the Timberwolves rank 21st (12.9).
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Denver ranks 18th (8.0).
The Nuggets average 25.1 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in assists allowed per game (24.2).
Denver ranks ninth in fast break points per game (13.5) while Minnesota ranks 25th (9.5).
The Nuggets allow the fewest rebounds per game (41.4) while the Timberwolves rank third (41.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Timberwolves have been outscored by an average of 6.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Minnesota has defeated opponents by an average of 1.9 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.2 points per game (9.3 above their season average).
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