The Minnesota Timberwolves (31-19) travel to Golden State to play the Warriors (38-10) in what should be a high-scoring game. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors ATS Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last outing, they were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 123-114. Portland’s 17.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Minnesota, who had a rate of 13.9. The Trail Blazers’ mark was below their season average of 23.0, while the Timberwolves’ was below their season average of 25.4. Andrew Wiggins led Minnesota in scoring with 24 points on 11-for-17 shooting.
The Warriors defeated the New York Knicks in their last matchup, 123-112. The Warriors, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.577, had an extraordinary mark of 0.633 and had a turnover percentage of 11.6 (better than their season average of 13.9). Stephen Curry was the game’s leading scorer with 32 points on 9-for-19 shooting.
The prolific offense of Golden State (first in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 114.0) will clash against the bottom-tier defense of Minnesota (23rd in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 108.0). The Warriors figure to have the edge on that end of the court. The Timberwolves should be expected to protect the ball well. They rank 1st at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while the Warriors force the fifth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.3 percent).
Minnesota comes into the contest with records of 31-19 straight up (SU) and 24-23-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Timberwolves games, with 25 overs compared to 23 unders.
Golden State is 38-10 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (21-26-1 ATS). Coinciding with Minnesota, Warriors games have finished over the projected point total 54.2 percent of the time.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Curry recorded 22 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in the first game, in which the Warriors defeated the Timberwolves 125-101, covering as 8.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 226 points, which was just 1 points below the projected point total of 227 points. Golden State’s 0.653 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Minnesota, who had a rate of 0.440.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 12-11-1 ATS with 12 overs and 12 unders.
Golden State is 9-13-1 ATS at home with 12 overs and 11 unders.
Golden State is 11-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Minnesota is 14-4.
When reaching 100 points, the Warriors are 35-7 and the Timberwolves are 29-10.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Golden State ranks 27th (8.8).
The Timberwolves average 14.4 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the league. The Warriors rank 27th in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.9) while Minnesota ranks 23rd (4.2).
The Timberwolves average 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the league. The Warriors rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
Minnesota averages 48.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Golden State ranks 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
The Warriors average 20.7 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (12.6).
Golden State averages 30.7 assists per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 22nd in assists allowed per game (23.8).
The Warriors rank 11th in three pointers attempted per game (29.8) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (22.3).
Minnesota ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Golden State ranks eighth (42.2).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves have been outscored by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Minnesota has defeated opponents by an average of 3.3 points.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 119.0 points per game (3.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (7.4 above their season average).
